With my own caveat that the Democratic Party is well known for its ability to turn what should be a cakewalk election into an embarrassing loss, Democracy Corps has some new polling results that show big changes in the American electorate that "have an enduring quality, with the opportunity to shape the parties’ prospects in 2008."
The basics:
A generic Democratic ticket leads a Republican ticket 51% to 39%.
Named Democrats beat named Republicans in congressional races 51% to 42%.
Independents prefer a Democrat for president by 19 percentage points.
After going for Bush in 2004, married women now prefer a Democratic president in 2008 by a small margin.
Down deeper into the poll:
After going with Bush in 2004 by five percentage points, Catholic voters are returning to the Democratic Party in droves, with 51% wanting a Democratic president and only 38% wanting a Republican.
Americans with college educations prefer a Democrat for president 52% to 41%.
In counties won by John Kerry in 2004 the Democratic ticket leads by a 2-to-1 margin; counties won by Mr. Bush have the Republican ticket winning by only 1 point.
Rural voters still prefer a Republican president, but only by a 48% to 41% margin (the GOP usually carry this demographic by 20+ points).
And finally, a statistic that gives me a little bit of hope for the future, voters under 30 plan to vote Democratic next year by "landslide margins," according to the poll.
That last statistic is Karl Rove's legacy, the way I see it. His destructive campaign methods and his hateful domestic agenda led George W. Bush to a method of governance that will keep younger voters in the Democratic column for a generation.
