19 April 2010

Nail Biter in the U.K.

Note: This post lists polling results from Monday. Apparently the graphic above changes automatically with each new set of figures.

The coming British election is turning into a real nail biter, with the three major political parties within four points of each other: Conservatives at 31%, the Liberal-Democrats at 29%, and the ruling Labour Party at 27%. Translating that to seats in Parliament, Conservatives would come out on top with about 310 seats, Labour 251, and the Lib-Dems at 59 (smaller third parties would win about 30). A majority being 326 seats, that would mean an election resulting in a hung parliament.

In order for a government to be seated, a coalition would need to be formed in which several parties join together and chose a prime minister. If the final election results reflect current polling, Labour would probably retain control by forming a coalition government with the Liberal-Democrats.

It wouldn't be the best place from which to govern, but they would control the government until another election is called. (If the May 6 election results in a hung parliament, my guess would be another election in a year or so.)

I don't know that much about politics in the U.K., but my hope from ten time zones away is that David Cameron and his Conservative Party pull this out. Unlike the Republicans here in the U.S., the British Conservatives don't give in to Fascist tendencies. While their monetary policy leaves much to be desired, they are pro-gay, pro-green (Cameron rides a bike to work on most days), and pro-health care. And word has it that Cameron has the potential to be Britain's version of Barack Obama: A young leader of the opposition who is ready to change the political paradigm following 13 years of rule by the majority party.

Election night there will be mighty interesting.