This ad needs to be played over and over and over and over again...from now through Election Day...
29 October 2008
W.W.R.D.? (What would Reagan do?)
I posted this earlier in the month, but the point is one that needs to be hammered home. The arguments Ronald Reagan made in 1980 against the incompetent administration apply strongly to 2008.
Here we are, 28 years later, with an accelerated economic downturn and our global reputation in tatters. And the Republican government want us to pat them on the back, say "job well done," and reward them with a third term in the White House?
Without a doubt, it is clear: America can't afford four more years of incompetent and failed leadership.
Here we are, 28 years later, with an accelerated economic downturn and our global reputation in tatters. And the Republican government want us to pat them on the back, say "job well done," and reward them with a third term in the White House?
Without a doubt, it is clear: America can't afford four more years of incompetent and failed leadership.
Sarah Palin: Socialist
Hendrik Heretzberg on how the governor of Alaska likes to "spread the wealth around"...
The state that she governs has no income or sales tax. Instead, it imposes huge levies on the oil companies that lease its oil fields. The proceeds finance the government’s activities and enable it to issue a four-figure annual check to every man, woman, and child in the state. One of the reasons Palin has been a popular governor is that she added an extra twelve hundred dollars to this year’s check, bringing the per-person total to $3,269. A few weeks before she was nominated for Vice-President, she told a visiting journalist—Philip Gourevitch, of this magazine—that “we’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.
Feinstein Urges No on 8; Arnold Still Silent
Sen. Dianne Feinstein recorded a commercial against Prop 8 that started airing on TV last night. While I'm sure many appreciate the move, it's too little too late in my opinion. If this things passes by a close margin, I'll place a small bit of the blame at the Senator's door. She was the Mayor of San Francisco for crying out loud. Speaking out against this hate amendment should have been a no-brainer for her months ago.
And while we're on the subject of prominent, well respected California politicians...where the hell is Gov. Schwarzenegger on this?! In April he told the Log Cabin Republicans that he would fight against Proposition 8. But he has been stone-cold silent during the fall political campaign. A commercial from him could actually make a huge difference.
Coward.
A big thank you to the readers who have given money to the cause. If you haven't, I urge you to donate a few bucks here. There is still enough time to turn this around, and every little bit helps.
And while we're on the subject of prominent, well respected California politicians...where the hell is Gov. Schwarzenegger on this?! In April he told the Log Cabin Republicans that he would fight against Proposition 8. But he has been stone-cold silent during the fall political campaign. A commercial from him could actually make a huge difference.
Coward.
A big thank you to the readers who have given money to the cause. If you haven't, I urge you to donate a few bucks here. There is still enough time to turn this around, and every little bit helps.
Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 12
One thing is for certain, the asshole you see here between 0:24 and 0:34 needs to be tracked down by the Secret Service and arrested. Last time I looked, threatening the life of a presidential candidate is against the law.
These people really are bottom-feeding scum, and they represent one of the many reasons why the Republicans should be defeated soundly on Tuesday. Now more than ever, America needs to turn the page. And these sorry, pathetic souls need be relegated to the trash bin.
These people really are bottom-feeding scum, and they represent one of the many reasons why the Republicans should be defeated soundly on Tuesday. Now more than ever, America needs to turn the page. And these sorry, pathetic souls need be relegated to the trash bin.
Approaching the Finish Line
As I mentioned yesterday, we can't afford to rest on our laurels during this final stretch. An Obama victory is not a foregone conclusion. Every American who is registered to vote must cast their ballots between now and Election Day. Now more than ever, every possible American needs to exercise their right to vote.
Is Arizona In Play?
Two new polls would lead one to believe McCain is in trouble at home:
Cronkite/Eight:These numbers may force McCain to make a detour in the last week of the campaign, from defending states Bush won in 2004 to defending his own turf. To be sure, I don't expect Obama to win Arizona's 10 electoral votes next week. But if McCain doesn't make an appearance there between now and Election Day, things may get pretty tight. And if there is some overwhelming Obama tidal wave of unexpected proportions, then all bets are off.
McCain 46%
Obama 44%
Zimmerman:
McCain 44%
Obama 42%
Again with the Asians
Now they're putting their kids in their hypocritical, hateful, and vile commercials...
Fuckin' hypocrites from hell! Don't make me pull out the internment camp argument.
Oh..and "SOS"...those kids can't sing. Their caterwauling makes my ears bleed!
Fuckin' hypocrites from hell! Don't make me pull out the internment camp argument.
Oh..and "SOS"...those kids can't sing. Their caterwauling makes my ears bleed!
"One day I was one of life's losers...
...even my friends were my accusers..."Your Song of the Day is this classic from 1981...
"Winning" by Santana
28 October 2008
The Electoral Map: One Week Out
Following the best case and worst case scenarios posted over the last couple of days, here is how the electoral map actually looks one week out. This isn't scientific in the least, it's just how I see things based on state-by-state polling averages as calculated by Real Clear Politics, with a little bit of a gut-hunch thrown in.
For this map, each candidate is assigned a state if their polling numbers in the state are over 50%, or, if they are polling under 50%, they are more than three points ahead of their opponent. I've assigned toss-up status to states where both candidates are polling under 50% and within three points of each other.
Obama/Biden: 338 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 153 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 47 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)
One caveat: Although the RCP average in Arizona shows McCain ahead of Obama by about 6%, I've added the state to the toss-up list because two polls taken this week show McCain with very slim leads there.
Again, I'm no expert at this sort of thing. My maps are based on my read of the state-by-state polling combined with an educated guess as to how things might look if the election were held today.
That said, I really do believe things look very good for Obama. But they're bound to tighten up here in the last seven days of the campaign, and that makes it all the more imperative that each and everyone of us gets out and votes. Whether you vote early or on Election Day...whether it takes 5 minutes or 5 hours...this election is too important for you to sit it out.
I'll revisit the map in a couple of days or so.
For this map, each candidate is assigned a state if their polling numbers in the state are over 50%, or, if they are polling under 50%, they are more than three points ahead of their opponent. I've assigned toss-up status to states where both candidates are polling under 50% and within three points of each other.
Obama/Biden: 338 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 153 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 47 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)
One caveat: Although the RCP average in Arizona shows McCain ahead of Obama by about 6%, I've added the state to the toss-up list because two polls taken this week show McCain with very slim leads there.
Again, I'm no expert at this sort of thing. My maps are based on my read of the state-by-state polling combined with an educated guess as to how things might look if the election were held today.
That said, I really do believe things look very good for Obama. But they're bound to tighten up here in the last seven days of the campaign, and that makes it all the more imperative that each and everyone of us gets out and votes. Whether you vote early or on Election Day...whether it takes 5 minutes or 5 hours...this election is too important for you to sit it out.
I'll revisit the map in a couple of days or so.
The Republican Clusterfuck
Quote of the Day #2:
It's a massive, unmissable clusterfuck and has been for two months. They just can't hide it any longer. And the pick is a devastating one ... [John McCain's] first major decision as a future president is one of the worst in American political history. That alone should be enough to seal his fate next Tuesday. You need nothing else.-Andrew Sullivan, on the debacle that is the Palin candidacy.
Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 11
Video the Vote looks into reports of widespread "vote-jumping" on electronic touchscreen machines in Jackson County, West Virginia. In an interview with the county clerk, they filmed what happens when these machines are "out of calibration"...
Makes the stomach drop a bit, doesn't it?
Without a doubt, these machines need to be thrown in the trash heap. There is no reason (NONE) why every county in every state in the nation can't use paper ballots. Any method to cast ballots will have its holes to plug, but at least with paper ballots you can turn around and re-count if need be. I don't trust these electronic machines in the least.
Makes the stomach drop a bit, doesn't it?
Without a doubt, these machines need to be thrown in the trash heap. There is no reason (NONE) why every county in every state in the nation can't use paper ballots. Any method to cast ballots will have its holes to plug, but at least with paper ballots you can turn around and re-count if need be. I don't trust these electronic machines in the least.
One Week
With Election Day now one week away, Barack Obama is making his final argument. It's powerful stuff and pitch perfect as we head into the final stretch...
Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 10
A prime example of why it is so vital that the fascist hate-mongers of the Republican Party get sent to the trash heap next week:
You Know Your Campaign Is In Trouble...
...when dozens of call center volunteers get up and walk out rather than spew the Republican venom they've been asked to read.
Republicans Against Prop 8
There used to be a time when conservatives would have fought against soiling the state's constitution with anti-gay graffiti. The whole premise of old-school conservatism was to keep government out of our lives. In fact, in 1978 Ronald Reagan spoke out against the Briggs Amendment, a ballot proposal that would have banned gay and lesbian Californians from teaching in public schools. The proposal failed at the ballot box in large part because of Reagan's stance on the issue.
But the modern day conservative movement has been taken over by the christian fascists, and they are hell bent on forcing their narrow morals on the rest of the country.
So I was happy to see this ad yesterday. Real Republicans taking the true conservative stand on Prop 8:
The results on this ballot measure will likely be close. But it's vital that the proposition be rejected. You can do your part by donating here.
But the modern day conservative movement has been taken over by the christian fascists, and they are hell bent on forcing their narrow morals on the rest of the country.
So I was happy to see this ad yesterday. Real Republicans taking the true conservative stand on Prop 8:
The results on this ballot measure will likely be close. But it's vital that the proposition be rejected. You can do your part by donating here.
Tony Perkins: Drama Queen
Tony Perkins, head of the christian-fascist Family Research Council, yesterday to the New York Times:
Give me a fuckin' break!
This sort of thinking is what should move loads of voters against the measure, and is most certainly one of the many reasons why Republicans will be sent packing next week.
401k's are losing value by the day, gas prices are still sky-high, we're on the verge of a depression-like economic downturn, and our global reputation is in tatters. And Perkins REALLY believes that the most important issue of the day is gay marriage?!?!
It’s more important than the presidential election. We’ve picked bad presidents before, and we’ve survived as a nation. But we will not survive if we lose the institution of marriage.Yeah...because...you know...Massachusetts has fallen into armageddon.
Give me a fuckin' break!
This sort of thinking is what should move loads of voters against the measure, and is most certainly one of the many reasons why Republicans will be sent packing next week.
401k's are losing value by the day, gas prices are still sky-high, we're on the verge of a depression-like economic downturn, and our global reputation is in tatters. And Perkins REALLY believes that the most important issue of the day is gay marriage?!?!
Releasing My Inner Archie Bunker
This vile and horrid ad from some fuckin' Chinese group compares gay marriage to incest, polygamy, and adult-on-child marriages...
Every fiber of my inner-Archie Bunker wants to lash out at these horrid right-wing nutcase fascists.
This is beyond disgusting and any TV station that plays this ad should be boycotted straight away. Not even the caucasian wing-nuts have run such a repellent, repugnant, loathsome ad!!
Fucking assholes.
Every fiber of my inner-Archie Bunker wants to lash out at these horrid right-wing nutcase fascists.
This is beyond disgusting and any TV station that plays this ad should be boycotted straight away. Not even the caucasian wing-nuts have run such a repellent, repugnant, loathsome ad!!
Fucking assholes.
Not Ready For the Presidency
I am not trying to be ageist here, but tell me, after watching the clip below, that John McCain should be let anywhere near the White House. And then take the thought one step further...to "President Palin."
Unqualified
Quote of the Day:
Hagel hasn't endorsed Obama publicly, but me thinks he'll be casting a vote for him next week!
I don’t believe she’s qualified to be President of the United States. The first judgment a potential President makes is who their running mate is—and I don’t think John made a very good selection.-Sen. Chuck Hagel (Republican-NE), on Sarah Palin's candidacy.
Hagel hasn't endorsed Obama publicly, but me thinks he'll be casting a vote for him next week!
"Runaway Train"
It's time for some "kick ass rock and roll"!! Your Song of the Day is the new single from AC/DC...
"Rock 'n Roll Train"
"Rock 'n Roll Train"
Sarah Palin: Pallin' Around With Convicts
Sen. Ted Stevens (Republican-AK) was found guilty yesterday on seven counts of corruption charges.
And the important question of the day is this: Will the Anchorage Airport have to change it's name?
And the important question of the day is this: Will the Anchorage Airport have to change it's name?
27 October 2008
The Electoral Map: Worst Case Scenario
Following yesterday's post in which I laid out the best case scenario for the Obama/Biden ticket in the Electoral College, here is what I believe to be the worst case scenario - how things might look if there is some sort of unforeseen Truman-style upset by John McCain...
McCain/Palin 296
Obama/Biden 242
(270 needed to win)
We need to remember that this election isn't over. While many Americans are voting early, a vast majority won't cast ballots until November 4th, and we won't know the results until that evening. That said, while Obama seems to be on track to a solid win, there are some factors that might derail him.
John McCain is pouring all of his resources into Pennsylvania, never mind that polling there shows Obama up by 10-points or more. The Republican is playing the race card (what other reason would prompt him to put all his eggs in such an impossible basket) and hoping the Keystone State will carry him over the finish line. If it works in Pennyslvania it will work in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, and could very well extend into Colorado and Nevada.
However...if McCain were somehow able to pull such a scenario out of his ass, he'd do so without the national popular vote, hobbling his presidency from day one.
But as of today, I don't see this scenario playing itself out. Nor do I see yesterday's "best case" as the final result. It will be somewhere in the middle...but only if Americans show up at their polling places in great numbers between now and Election Day.
So please...PLEASE...get out there and VOTE!
Tomorrow: I'll post a map based on where I believe things stand one-week out.
McCain/Palin 296
Obama/Biden 242
(270 needed to win)
We need to remember that this election isn't over. While many Americans are voting early, a vast majority won't cast ballots until November 4th, and we won't know the results until that evening. That said, while Obama seems to be on track to a solid win, there are some factors that might derail him.
John McCain is pouring all of his resources into Pennsylvania, never mind that polling there shows Obama up by 10-points or more. The Republican is playing the race card (what other reason would prompt him to put all his eggs in such an impossible basket) and hoping the Keystone State will carry him over the finish line. If it works in Pennyslvania it will work in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, and could very well extend into Colorado and Nevada.
However...if McCain were somehow able to pull such a scenario out of his ass, he'd do so without the national popular vote, hobbling his presidency from day one.
But as of today, I don't see this scenario playing itself out. Nor do I see yesterday's "best case" as the final result. It will be somewhere in the middle...but only if Americans show up at their polling places in great numbers between now and Election Day.
So please...PLEASE...get out there and VOTE!
Tomorrow: I'll post a map based on where I believe things stand one-week out.
Yet Another Republican For Obama
Former Gov. William Weld, who was the first of four Republicans to hold the governorship of Massachusetts from 1991 to 2003, endorsed Barack Obama for president last week.
Senator Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who will transform our politics and restore America's standing in the world. We need a president who will lead based on our common values and Senator Obama demonstrates an ability to unite and inspire. Throughout this campaign I've watched his steady leadership through trying times and I'm confident he is the best candidate to move our country forward.Weld was governor from 1991 to 1997, and endorsed Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries earlier this year.
More Republicans For Obama
"They. Did. A. Lousy. Job."
A slew of Democrats abandoned President Carter in 1980 because of incompetent leadership. The economy was in the shitter, our foreign policy was a joke, and our global reputation was in tatters. Americans who had voted Democratic for 50 years punished their party for such failed statesmanship by voting Republican in large enough numbers to hand Ronald Reagan an Electoral College landslide, and with him a GOP-led Senate.
We find ourselves in the same situation in 2008, only with the party labels reversed. I have posted several instances of prominent Republicans publicly endorsing the Democratic ticket this year. But the big question is this: Will enough disenchanted Republicans have the cajones, as Democrats did in 1980, to punish their party for a job so thoroughly screwed up that they'll be able to mark their ballots for a black Democrat?
Based on the rather large number of public, high-profile Republican endorsements, I think Obama will be surprised at the level of support he gets from the opposition in eight days.
A slew of Democrats abandoned President Carter in 1980 because of incompetent leadership. The economy was in the shitter, our foreign policy was a joke, and our global reputation was in tatters. Americans who had voted Democratic for 50 years punished their party for such failed statesmanship by voting Republican in large enough numbers to hand Ronald Reagan an Electoral College landslide, and with him a GOP-led Senate.
We find ourselves in the same situation in 2008, only with the party labels reversed. I have posted several instances of prominent Republicans publicly endorsing the Democratic ticket this year. But the big question is this: Will enough disenchanted Republicans have the cajones, as Democrats did in 1980, to punish their party for a job so thoroughly screwed up that they'll be able to mark their ballots for a black Democrat?
Based on the rather large number of public, high-profile Republican endorsements, I think Obama will be surprised at the level of support he gets from the opposition in eight days.
Republicans For Obama
Add former Sen. Larry Pressler (Republican-SD) to the growing list of prominent Republicans who are voting for Barack Obama next week:
I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of [former Treasury Secretary Robert] Rubin and [former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul] Volcker better.It will Pressler's first vote for a Democrat.
[John McCain's] handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous.
The Big Gunns
Ok everyone...gather 'round.
Two new high-profile "No on 8" ads...
There's still time to beat this fascist proposition. You can do your part by sending a few bucks their way.
Two new high-profile "No on 8" ads...
There's still time to beat this fascist proposition. You can do your part by sending a few bucks their way.
Suh - NAP !
Quote of the Day:
They are now eating their own...yeah...you betcha!
She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone, she does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party.-A McCain campaign aide commenting on the GOP V.P. candidate, to CNN yesterday.
Remember: divas trust only unto themselves as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom.
They are now eating their own...yeah...you betcha!
Hissing Pussy
Brent and I have been on pussy patrol over the last week, watching Ben & Daryl's cats while they were in L.A., and spending some time with Mona while Scott and Steve are vacationing in Europe (whatever!). Ben and Daryl's cats hid during each visit I made to check on them. Mona, however, greeted me this morning from a rather comfy nap...
26 October 2008
The Electoral Map: Best Case Scenario
Ok...as we approach the final week of the 2008 presidential campaign all eyes will be on the polls. The important ones to watch, of course, will be the state-by-state polls, as that is where the election will be won or lost. Barack Obama has enjoyed a comfortable lead in most national polling over the last couple of weeks, which seems to be translating into a solidified Electoral College advantage at the state-by-state level.
Personally, I think things will tighten between now and November 4th. This is a conservative country at heart, and while it looks like we're on track to elect Barack Obama president, I also think that the history of presidential elections from 1968 to 2004 will be provide the Democratic ticket with some push back. In those ten elections, no Democrat won 50% of the vote except Jimmy Carter in 1976. (Bill Clinton won both of his elections with 43% and 49% respectively, due in large part to Ross Perot's presence on the ballot in 1992 and 1996.)
That said, I still believe we're on track to a realigning election. Obama looks highly likely to win this thing with a comfortable popular vote margin and a strong showing in the Electoral College.
And so I will post two maps over the next couple of days. A best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. I don't expect either map to be in place on November 5th. Instead, they'll serve as a political geek's look at the ceiling and floor of Obama's support.
Below is the best case scenario, as I see it. If this election turns into a Reagan-style rout of the ruling party, if enough disenchanted Republicans have the courage to vote against their party as punishment for incompetent leadership, the map could be sky blue on Election Day...
Obama/Biden 400
McCain/Palin 138
(270 needed to win)
If there is a huge Democratic tidal wave on Election Day, we could very well see some longtime Republican states move to Obama's column unexpectedly: Georgia and North Carolina (where African-American turnout could be key); Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota (where Obama is spending butt loads of money because TV ad buys are cheap in those states); and Florida (if Obama over performs with senior citizen and Jewish voters). I think the chances of such a landslide are about 5%. The Democrats may well win one (maybe two) of these states next week, but to win all of them...well...I just don't see it.
Tomorrow: The worst case scenario.
Personally, I think things will tighten between now and November 4th. This is a conservative country at heart, and while it looks like we're on track to elect Barack Obama president, I also think that the history of presidential elections from 1968 to 2004 will be provide the Democratic ticket with some push back. In those ten elections, no Democrat won 50% of the vote except Jimmy Carter in 1976. (Bill Clinton won both of his elections with 43% and 49% respectively, due in large part to Ross Perot's presence on the ballot in 1992 and 1996.)
That said, I still believe we're on track to a realigning election. Obama looks highly likely to win this thing with a comfortable popular vote margin and a strong showing in the Electoral College.
And so I will post two maps over the next couple of days. A best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. I don't expect either map to be in place on November 5th. Instead, they'll serve as a political geek's look at the ceiling and floor of Obama's support.
Below is the best case scenario, as I see it. If this election turns into a Reagan-style rout of the ruling party, if enough disenchanted Republicans have the courage to vote against their party as punishment for incompetent leadership, the map could be sky blue on Election Day...
Obama/Biden 400
McCain/Palin 138
(270 needed to win)
If there is a huge Democratic tidal wave on Election Day, we could very well see some longtime Republican states move to Obama's column unexpectedly: Georgia and North Carolina (where African-American turnout could be key); Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota (where Obama is spending butt loads of money because TV ad buys are cheap in those states); and Florida (if Obama over performs with senior citizen and Jewish voters). I think the chances of such a landslide are about 5%. The Democrats may well win one (maybe two) of these states next week, but to win all of them...well...I just don't see it.
Tomorrow: The worst case scenario.
On Prop 8: NO!
fascism: (noun), an extreme form of nationalism that rejects individual freedom, individualism, democracy, and limitations on state.
(see "Mormon")
This is very simple, really. The California State Constitution exists in order to guarantee individual rights, liberty, and equal justice under the law. Those who want to pass Proposition 8, the proposed amendment to the state constitution that would define marriage as between one man and one woman, would like to graffiti the document with discrimination and hatred.
Californians must reject this ballot measure outright.
The argument of the fascists pushing this amendment is that gay unions somehow undermine the sanctity of traditional marriage. The facts, however, are not on their side. Gay couples have been able to wed legally in California since June and heterosexual marriages seem to be doing just fine. The preacher and his wife in New Castle haven't blown up; the marriage license line at City Hall in Modesto hasn't turned into to some gay pride event; and the divorce rate in California remains right where it was in May. The same goes for Massachusetts, where gay marriage has been legal for several years now. Everyone is fine, the Earth hasn't opened up to swallow us all whole.
No. What this essential comes down to is that the right wing fascists of the Mormon Church are hateful bigots with absolutely no idea what they're talking about. I mean, a church known for its polygamist past should be the last group to preach to others about the meaning of marriage.
When it comes right down to it, this amendment proposal has nothing to do with marriage - and everything to do with being gay. If you folks want to preach to the rafters about your view of "traditional marriage," fine...go for it. As Americans that is your right. But don't try to force your views on the rest of us by way of the ballot box. Until you criticize the trashing of straight marriage and support a constitutional amendment banning straight divorce, no one should take you seriously. Until you stand up and fight Britney Spears and Madonna just as hard as you fight the gay community, you have no moral ground on which to stand.
Facts are facts: You folks pushing this hate amendment aren't pro-marriage. You're anti-gay. And Californians should reject Proposition 8 on November 4th.
(see "Mormon")
This is very simple, really. The California State Constitution exists in order to guarantee individual rights, liberty, and equal justice under the law. Those who want to pass Proposition 8, the proposed amendment to the state constitution that would define marriage as between one man and one woman, would like to graffiti the document with discrimination and hatred.
Californians must reject this ballot measure outright.
The argument of the fascists pushing this amendment is that gay unions somehow undermine the sanctity of traditional marriage. The facts, however, are not on their side. Gay couples have been able to wed legally in California since June and heterosexual marriages seem to be doing just fine. The preacher and his wife in New Castle haven't blown up; the marriage license line at City Hall in Modesto hasn't turned into to some gay pride event; and the divorce rate in California remains right where it was in May. The same goes for Massachusetts, where gay marriage has been legal for several years now. Everyone is fine, the Earth hasn't opened up to swallow us all whole.
No. What this essential comes down to is that the right wing fascists of the Mormon Church are hateful bigots with absolutely no idea what they're talking about. I mean, a church known for its polygamist past should be the last group to preach to others about the meaning of marriage.
When it comes right down to it, this amendment proposal has nothing to do with marriage - and everything to do with being gay. If you folks want to preach to the rafters about your view of "traditional marriage," fine...go for it. As Americans that is your right. But don't try to force your views on the rest of us by way of the ballot box. Until you criticize the trashing of straight marriage and support a constitutional amendment banning straight divorce, no one should take you seriously. Until you stand up and fight Britney Spears and Madonna just as hard as you fight the gay community, you have no moral ground on which to stand.
Facts are facts: You folks pushing this hate amendment aren't pro-marriage. You're anti-gay. And Californians should reject Proposition 8 on November 4th.
Give Me Some Bass
While putting together some tunes for a small dinner party last night, I put two songs on the playlist, back to back, that had some absolutely wicked bass riffs. I post them here as a double Song of the Day...
First up, Fleetwood Mac's classic "Go Your Own Way." John McVie is in another realm on this track. Pay special attention at the chorus - underneath the vocals of Lindsey Buckingham, Christine McVie, and Stevie Nicks - McVie is a one man orchestra, anchoring the track with some stellar bass riffs.
And on the other side of the musical spectrum is this funk classic from 1978. R&B legend Leon Sylvers delivers some solid, muffled bass in the intro, and then provides some wild licks through the rest of the track. Enjoy "Don't Stop, Get Off" by the Sylvers.
First up, Fleetwood Mac's classic "Go Your Own Way." John McVie is in another realm on this track. Pay special attention at the chorus - underneath the vocals of Lindsey Buckingham, Christine McVie, and Stevie Nicks - McVie is a one man orchestra, anchoring the track with some stellar bass riffs.
And on the other side of the musical spectrum is this funk classic from 1978. R&B legend Leon Sylvers delivers some solid, muffled bass in the intro, and then provides some wild licks through the rest of the track. Enjoy "Don't Stop, Get Off" by the Sylvers.
"Roll It, Pat It, and Mark It With a B..."
Greg Sargent over at TPM is all over the story of the idiot in Pennsylvania who carved the letter "B" into her cheek and then went to police and faked a story about being attacked by a black man because she had a "McCain/Palin" bumper sticker on her car.
That whole side of the political spectrum is just one big sad state of affairs.
That whole side of the political spectrum is just one big sad state of affairs.
25 October 2008
It Was 1948
Yesterday's "Which Election Was It?" electoral map was from 1948. In what is widely considered the biggest upset in presidential history, Democratic incumbent Harry Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey. And while it wasn't a landslide, it wasn't close. Following the triumph of World War II and the resulting booming economy, the U.S. was on a slight downward trend. Truman's approval ratings were in the cellar and the 1940 Republican presidential candidate was re-nominated to take on Franklin Roosevelt's successor on an "I told you so" platform.
It didn't work, although most polls, pundits, and voters thought it would. Polling showed Dewey beating Truman to a pulp. However, as polling was still an in-exact science at the time, surveys of the voting public stopped in early October. If they hadn't, they might have picked up the last minute surge of many Americans who, after 16 years of Democratic rule, knew nothing but. And thus Harry Truman won the election in a stunning upset.
Everyone was so sure of a Dewey victory that the Chicago Tribune ran the now infamous headline, before the final result: "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN."
Since then, every presidential candidate who finds themselves behind in pre-election polling compares themselves to President Truman. Only every single one of them found themselves right where the polls put them...on the losing side of history.
For Congress: A Write-In
When the Democrats took control of congress two years ago, I was among the first to say that impeachment should be kept off the table. I was wrong and changed my tune within months of the new congress taking office. One only need look at the trashed state of our nation and the Constitution to realize that if ever there was a case for impeachment of a president (and vice-president), this is it. Yet my congresswoman, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, refused to take up the issue. In fact she has been the queen of capitulation from the get go, giving in to the incompetent and highly unpopular administration on issue after issue, from impeachment to FISA.
Unfortunately Pelosi had no major competition in the Democratic primary earlier this year, and she has only token opposition for the general election in Cindy Sheehan's independent candidacy. The Speaker will coast to re-election next week.
But she'll do so without my vote.
No, I'm not abstaining. No, I'm not voting for Sheehan (who, by the way, might surprise us all with a stronger than expected showing on Election Day). And no, of course I'm not voting for the Republican candidate. Instead, I'm tipping my hat to a San Francisco resident who, like me, has had it with Pelosi's lack of cajones. A passionate progressive here in the 8th congressional district who had a spirited debate with me through out the Democratic primary campaign, casting his vote for Hillary Clinton while I backed Barack Obama. His strong values on many causes are near and dear to the residents of this great city, and he has put his money, sweat, and tears where his mouth is by taking part in the 545-mile San Francisco to Los Angeles AIDS Lifecycle ride.
On November 4th, I will cast a write-in vote in order to send a signal to Speaker Pelosi that she needs to grow a spine. I will be casting my vote for United States Representative for Larry Litalien.
I urge anyone reading from the 8th district to join me. Pelosi's a shoo-in, but let's send her a strong message.
24 October 2008
Are You Freekin' Kiddin' Me?
John McCain's brother, apparently believing that his relationship to the Republican presidential candidate gives him special access to the cops, called 9-1-1 in Arlington, Virginia recently to report...
...traffic.
Do we really want four more years of this shit?
...traffic.
Do we really want four more years of this shit?
Platter of Shit
Quote of the Day:I look at these [undecided voters] and can’t quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors?, I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention?-David Sedaris, in a New Yorker essay on the very odd American called "the undecided voter."
To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?"
Click on the link above and give the essay a read. As always, Sedaris will have you in stitches.
More Good Polling News
More good polling news for the Obama/Biden ticket. Two more national polls show two more blow out scenarios:
Be confident. Know Hope. But fight like he's 10 points down. Don't let up. Be relentless.
New York Times/CBS News:More importantly, new state-by-state polling continues to show a comfortable Electoral College position:
Obama/Biden 52%
McCain/Palin 39%
ABC News/Washington Post:
Obama/Biden 54%
McCain/Palin 43%
Minnesota:While the data shows a solid position for Sens. Obama and Biden heading into Election Day, this is by no means a done deal. As Thomas Dewey in 1948 and Barack Obama in New Hampshire this past winter can attest, the only poll that matters is the one that includes real ballots being cast by real voters on Election Day.
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 40%
Pennsylvania:
Obama/Biden 53%
McCain/Palin 41%
Florida:
Obama/Biden 49%
McCain/Palin 42%
Montana:
Obama/Biden 44%
McCain/Palin 40%
Be confident. Know Hope. But fight like he's 10 points down. Don't let up. Be relentless.
Obama and Arnold and Prop 8
Andrew Sullivan challenges Obama:
BUT AT THE SAME TIME...I would ask Gov. Schwarzenegger (who is not thrilled that this issue is on the ballot) to cut his own commercial slamming this horrid amendment. Running an Ahh-nuld ad during the NASCAR races and football games over the next two weekends could sway just enough straight white guys to make the same difference an Obama ad might make with the African-American community.
You can do your part by giving to the cause here.
Black Californians back the anti-gay measure by a margin of 20 points, 58 - 38, in the SUSA poll...[making] it vital, in my opinion, that Barack Obama strongly and unequivocally oppose Proposition 8 in California, rather than keeping mainly quiet as he has done so far. We need him to make an ad opposing it.I agree. Obama's nomination is a catch-22 on the issue of Prop 8. The African-American community, who will be voting in droves on November 4th, oppose gay marriage by a ridiculously wide margin, and I am under no illusions those numbers will change significantly in this election. But if Obama were to cut an ad, it might move just enough voters to make a difference.
Memo to Obama: make an ad. Speak loudly. Defend equality. Defend it when it might actually lose you some votes.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME...I would ask Gov. Schwarzenegger (who is not thrilled that this issue is on the ballot) to cut his own commercial slamming this horrid amendment. Running an Ahh-nuld ad during the NASCAR races and football games over the next two weekends could sway just enough straight white guys to make the same difference an Obama ad might make with the African-American community.
You can do your part by giving to the cause here.
This Is Why Obama Is Ahead
He's presidential, he's patriotic, and he's classy. He really is the Democrats' Reagan...
Republicans For Obama
I saw this coming from a mile away:
Scott McClellan, President Bush's former press secretary, announced Thursday that he is endorsing Barack Obama for president.And former Gov. Arne Carlson (Republican-MN) endorsed Obama yesterday as well:
"From the very beginning I have said I am going to support the candidate that has the best chance for changing the way Washington works and getting things done and I will be voting for Barack Obama and clapping," McClellan said in his endorsement.
Regardless of our party, regardless of our partisan inclinations, there is no interest more compelling than the interest in the well-being of the United States.
End-of-the-Week Levity
You can't help but love this classic scene from "Big Business," starring Bette Midler and Lily Tomlin. It's slapstick at its best...
Which Election Was It?
After 16 years of Democratic rule, the Republicans were considered shoo-ins to return to the White House in this election. In fact, polling predicted a GOP landslide. But it wasn't to be. In the last month of the campaign, the Democrat stepped up to the plate and won an unexpected victory.
Democratic ticket:
Popular vote 49.5%
Electoral vote 303
Republican ticket:
Popular vote 45.1%
Electoral vote 189
A segregationist third-party candidate won 2.4% of the popular vote and 39 electoral votes from four southern states.
The answer tomorrow.
Eye Candy
His name is Joe...but I don't think his is the six pack McCain and the MILF have been speaking of on the campaign trail...
23 October 2008
Republicans For Obama
I was too young to vote in the 1980 presidential election, but I remember that night vividly. I was upset that Carter lost but remember feeling that he deserved to lose, that the country needed a reset moment, and that the Democratic Party needed some time in the political wilderness.
As much as I respected President Carter, I more than likely would have cast my ballot against him had I been old enough to vote. Whether my ballot would have been cast for Gov. Ronald Reagan, the Republican, or for John Anderson, the independent candidate, I don't know. But I look at Reagan's GOP convention speech from that year and see some strong parallels to this year's contest: Incompetence, failure, and America's global reputation in tatters. The situation was more than enough to send many Democrats to their polling places to cast a vote for Reagan.
In 2008, it looks like we have a reverse situation. With Republican leadership in the White House bringing us incompetence, failure, and a global reputation in tatters, a large number of Republicans seem ready to put their differences aside and cast their ballots for the Democratic ticket...
As much as I respected President Carter, I more than likely would have cast my ballot against him had I been old enough to vote. Whether my ballot would have been cast for Gov. Ronald Reagan, the Republican, or for John Anderson, the independent candidate, I don't know. But I look at Reagan's GOP convention speech from that year and see some strong parallels to this year's contest: Incompetence, failure, and America's global reputation in tatters. The situation was more than enough to send many Democrats to their polling places to cast a vote for Reagan.
In 2008, it looks like we have a reverse situation. With Republican leadership in the White House bringing us incompetence, failure, and a global reputation in tatters, a large number of Republicans seem ready to put their differences aside and cast their ballots for the Democratic ticket...
Obama Way Ahead In Key States
I have no clue as to the accuracy of their polls are or how well respected their results are in the political community, but a new set of numbers from Big Ten Battleground show Barack Obama carrying the midwestern states by tremendous margins:
The gap in Michigan seems awfully big as well. I just can't believe Obama will win there by 19-points. Although...three other polls show Obama ahead there by 15-points or more, and McCain has given up on the state. So, who knows. (I still think Obama will win by less than ten in Michigan.)
The rest of the polling above jives with other polls in those states. Again, I'm no expert on these things and no one really knows what to expect on Election Day. But if I were the McCain campaign, I'd be shitting bricks right now.
Indiana:I don't know...ahead in Indiana by ten points? The Hoosier State hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, and while it's definitely in play this year, a ten-point margin for Obama seems like an awfully big outlier. I'll want to see more polling out of this state before I move it from the toss-up category.
Obama 51%
McCain 41%
Iowa:
Obama 52%
McCain 39%
Michigan:
Obama 58%
McCain 36%
Minnesota:
Obama 57%
McCain 38%
Ohio:
Obama 53%
McCain 41%
Pennsylvania:
Obama 52%
McCain 41%
Wisconsin:
Obama 53%
McCain 40%
The gap in Michigan seems awfully big as well. I just can't believe Obama will win there by 19-points. Although...three other polls show Obama ahead there by 15-points or more, and McCain has given up on the state. So, who knows. (I still think Obama will win by less than ten in Michigan.)
The rest of the polling above jives with other polls in those states. Again, I'm no expert on these things and no one really knows what to expect on Election Day. But if I were the McCain campaign, I'd be shitting bricks right now.
In Disarray
NBC's Chuck Todd sees the Republican ticket, and the folks running their campaign, turning on each other and in the typical death-throws of a losing campaign...
"All bound for Mu Mu Land"
I ran across this on another blog yesterday and my jaw hit the floor. I TOTALLY forgot about this song.
Your Song of the Day is a #11 hit from 1991..."Justified and Ancient" by KLF featuring Tammy Wynette:
Your Song of the Day is a #11 hit from 1991..."Justified and Ancient" by KLF featuring Tammy Wynette:
22 October 2008
Tommy Joe Porter Hates Me
Email from a reader, responding to this post from yesterday, as written, without any editing from yours truly:
Tracy Kerlee has a dick?
you cocksmokin nigger luvin' faggut!!!!!!!!! tracy kerly may look like a pug but at least she doesn't stick her dick where the good lord didnt think it should go. mccain is gonna win this thing mark my words he will pull this out of his ass and all you barak hussain ubama ass fuckers will wake up on novamber the forth and start cryin like the pansees you areTommy Joe...we need to have a very long talk about your spelling, grammar, and writing sty-...wait a second...
faggot.
with deepest despite:
tommy joe porter
Tracy Kerlee has a dick?
Stripped For Cash
So, I stopped at the Bank of America ATM on the corner of 18th and Castro this morning to grab some cash, and as I was getting back in my car something caught my eye at the Wells Fargo ATM up the street...
When I told Brent about it later in the morning he said he'd already heard about it on the Energy 92.7 morning show. Apparently this guy was running all of his errands in the Castro this morning with nothing on but his shoes and a smile.
Only in San Francisco!
When I told Brent about it later in the morning he said he'd already heard about it on the Energy 92.7 morning show. Apparently this guy was running all of his errands in the Castro this morning with nothing on but his shoes and a smile.
Only in San Francisco!
"It's time now to sing out, the story never ends..."
A superb internet ad against California's Prop 8. Forward this to everyone you know. It makes the point better than most of the ads I've seen on TV. And PLEASE...click here to send a few bucks their way.
Two New Polls Show Strong Obama Lead
Two new polls show a wide lead for Barack Obama with just two weeks until Election Day:
So the key for the Obama campaign is to work harder and harder each day, as if they're 10 points down. And while they're focusing on some red states because they have to in order to reach 270 electoral votes, they should make sure Obama and/or Biden get back to Pennsylvania a couple of times between now and the election.
The path to victory is easy, if they don't get too confident and don't make any mis-steps.
UPDATE: Make that FOUR new polls:
Pew Research:This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination. A lot can happen in two weeks and other polls show the race with an Obama lead of about 6 to 8 points. It's bound to tighten by Election Day, and John McCain has decided to put all of his eggs in Pennsylvania's basket, hoping for an Electoral College upset.
Obama 53%
McCain 39%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%
So the key for the Obama campaign is to work harder and harder each day, as if they're 10 points down. And while they're focusing on some red states because they have to in order to reach 270 electoral votes, they should make sure Obama and/or Biden get back to Pennsylvania a couple of times between now and the election.
The path to victory is easy, if they don't get too confident and don't make any mis-steps.
UPDATE: Make that FOUR new polls:
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby:And now...the electoral map...
Obama 52%
McCain 42%
Gallup:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%
The Electoral College Outlook, Oct 22
Based on the composite state-by-state numbers as calculated by Pollster.com, here is how I see the Electoral College map as of this morning...
Obama/Biden: 320 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 218 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)
I've taken the states I listed as toss-ups last week and assigned them to a candidate based on how I think they will fall. Ohio and West Virginia go to McCain, as I think the Appalachian areas of those states will provide more than enough cover for the Republican ticket against Democratic tides elsewhere in those states. The same with Florida. In the end it's a Republican state and the northern "hick" areas there will provide McCain its 27 electoral votes. If a "Bradley Effect" still exists anywhere in the nation it's in Appalachia and Northern Florida.
North Carolina and North Dakota continue to look good for Obama so I've painted them blue here, although I think they can go either way. Virginia looks very good for the Democrats (more so that NC and ND) and I am about 85% confident that it will be in the party's column for the first time since 1964.
I'm no expert on these matters. This map is totally based on my unscientific reading of the polls, mixed with a half-hazard hunch on how each state will behave. But however close my map is to the eventual result, one thing is for sure: Things look extremely advantageous for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Even without the toss-up states, they still have enough electoral votes to claim victory.
For balance, here is how I see the map with toss-up states:
Obama/Biden: 286 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 186 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 66 electoral votes
On this map, states are listed as toss-ups if the polling figures on Pollster.com show both candidates are below 50% and have less than 4-points separating them.
I will revisit the map this weekend.
Obama/Biden: 320 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 218 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)
I've taken the states I listed as toss-ups last week and assigned them to a candidate based on how I think they will fall. Ohio and West Virginia go to McCain, as I think the Appalachian areas of those states will provide more than enough cover for the Republican ticket against Democratic tides elsewhere in those states. The same with Florida. In the end it's a Republican state and the northern "hick" areas there will provide McCain its 27 electoral votes. If a "Bradley Effect" still exists anywhere in the nation it's in Appalachia and Northern Florida.
North Carolina and North Dakota continue to look good for Obama so I've painted them blue here, although I think they can go either way. Virginia looks very good for the Democrats (more so that NC and ND) and I am about 85% confident that it will be in the party's column for the first time since 1964.
I'm no expert on these matters. This map is totally based on my unscientific reading of the polls, mixed with a half-hazard hunch on how each state will behave. But however close my map is to the eventual result, one thing is for sure: Things look extremely advantageous for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Even without the toss-up states, they still have enough electoral votes to claim victory.
For balance, here is how I see the map with toss-up states:
Obama/Biden: 286 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 186 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 66 electoral votes
On this map, states are listed as toss-ups if the polling figures on Pollster.com show both candidates are below 50% and have less than 4-points separating them.
I will revisit the map this weekend.
Mid-Week Brain Break
120 years of British history in two minutes, courtesy of the Hovis Bread Company...
Numbskull
John McCain, kissing ass in Pennsylvania yesterday:
Western Pennsylvania is the most patriotic, most God-loving, most patriotic part of America.Uhhh...Sen. McCain...your constituents in Arizona would like to have a word with you.
"You better take it easy, this place is hot..."
Your Song of the Day is a top-notch remake of the Spencer Davis Group's "Gimme Some Lovin'" by the Blues Brothers...
Out of Touch
Shades of Evita?
While hundreds of thousands of Americans lose their homes and jobs, the Republican Party has been playing dress-up with the Palin family:
While hundreds of thousands of Americans lose their homes and jobs, the Republican Party has been playing dress-up with the Palin family:
The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.And these fuckheads gave John Edwards shit about a $400 haircut!?!
According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.
The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September. The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August.
21 October 2008
Clueless
Dim-bulb Sarah Palin, incorrectly answering a question from a third grader about the role of vice-president...
Harry Reid, the current majority leader in the Senate, responded:
Some are saying Palin just doesn't know how the U.S. government works under the Constitution. That in and of itself is bad enough. But I actually think that in addition to that, the McCain handlers are feeding her that line in hopes that, should they win this election, they can send her over to Capitol Hill in an attempt to take over a chamber that will be overwhelmingly Democratic.
She'll make Cheney's assault on the Constitution look like child's play.
Save the nation, protect the Constitution: Vote OBAMA/BIDEN.
Harry Reid, the current majority leader in the Senate, responded:
Governor Palin needs to re-read - or perhaps read for the first time - the Constitution. While the Vice President presides over the Senate, he or she is not "in charge of" it.While Article I of the Constitution states the vice-president shall preside over the Senate, it also explicitly states that they have no legislative power in the chamber unless there is a tie vote.
Some are saying Palin just doesn't know how the U.S. government works under the Constitution. That in and of itself is bad enough. But I actually think that in addition to that, the McCain handlers are feeding her that line in hopes that, should they win this election, they can send her over to Capitol Hill in an attempt to take over a chamber that will be overwhelmingly Democratic.
She'll make Cheney's assault on the Constitution look like child's play.
Save the nation, protect the Constitution: Vote OBAMA/BIDEN.
"Toot" and Barack
When I read Barack Obama's "Dreams From My Father," I couldn't help but admire the relationship he has with his maternal grandmother, Madelyn Dunham. On that matter, the Senator from Illinois and I journeyed the same path. From birth until 12 years old (save a year-and-a-half in L.A.), it was my mother and grandmother who raised me; and even beyond the age of 12, many weekends and summers were spent in my grandmother's company. In the absence of my father, "Grandma Mom" was the co-parent with my mother. Both women gave up so much in order to put food on the table and to keep my sisters and me in clothes and under a dry roof.
Today my thoughts are with Sen. Obama, as he gets ready to leave the campaign trail for a couple of days so that he can travel to Hawaii to visit his ailing "Toot." With the election two weeks off and the possibility of him taking the helm very strong, this may be the last chance he gets to see her.
God speed, "Toot." And hang in there, Senator.
Today my thoughts are with Sen. Obama, as he gets ready to leave the campaign trail for a couple of days so that he can travel to Hawaii to visit his ailing "Toot." With the election two weeks off and the possibility of him taking the helm very strong, this may be the last chance he gets to see her.
God speed, "Toot." And hang in there, Senator.
True Republicans
This could have been one of the many "Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile" clips I've been posting if it weren't for the patriotic true Republicans that intervene. In my opinion, John McCain doesn't deserve their vote.
Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 9
A baby black bear was found dead this morning, shot in the head and dumped on the Western Carolina University campus, draped with a pair of Obama campaign signs, university police said.
Only the radical fringe Republicans would do something so horribly fucked up and twisted. This is beyond fucked-up. In fact, it crosses a line that should shake every American to their core. Because at this rate, if this sort of thing keeps up through Election Day (and probably beyond Election Day, should Obama win), we're hurdling toward someone getting killed.
Radical racism still exists in many parts of the South and Appalachia. And unless John McCain and Sarah Palin step up and make a speech condemning this behavior - and actually say out loud that they wouldn't want the votes of these dangerous imbeciles - then how long before we see a lynching? How long before someone is murdered as they walk into their polling place for early voting?
Wake up John and Sarah! Until you issue a full-throated condemnation of this vile behavior, you, in essence, promote it.
Only the radical fringe Republicans would do something so horribly fucked up and twisted. This is beyond fucked-up. In fact, it crosses a line that should shake every American to their core. Because at this rate, if this sort of thing keeps up through Election Day (and probably beyond Election Day, should Obama win), we're hurdling toward someone getting killed.
Radical racism still exists in many parts of the South and Appalachia. And unless John McCain and Sarah Palin step up and make a speech condemning this behavior - and actually say out loud that they wouldn't want the votes of these dangerous imbeciles - then how long before we see a lynching? How long before someone is murdered as they walk into their polling place for early voting?
Wake up John and Sarah! Until you issue a full-throated condemnation of this vile behavior, you, in essence, promote it.
Little Miss Chloe
...enjoying a warm and sunny autumn afternoon last week...and one of the best views of San Francisco...
McCain Gives Up on Colorado, Iowa, & NM
CNN's John King reports that the McCain campaign is pulling their resources out of Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico (where Obama's average leads are in the single digits), in order to pour everything into Pennsylvania (where Obama's lead is well into the double digits).
Three things: 1. This confirms that McCain's strategy is to give up on winning the popular vote and focus solely on the Electoral College;
2. Republicans have tried to contest Pennsylvania for 16 years now and have come up short every time. The state is reliably Democratic. Yes, the last two contests have been close there, but polling this year shows Obama so far ahead that McCain's gamble seems pretty desperate;
3. Should McCain somehow pull PA into the GOP column, I still don't see how the math works for him. Put Colorado, Iowa, and NM into Obama's column, add Virginia (where the Democrat is also leading by double digits) and Nevada (also an Obama lead), and McCain still loses.
This is the sure sign of a campaign in dire straits. They're flailing about before the final plunge.
Three things: 1. This confirms that McCain's strategy is to give up on winning the popular vote and focus solely on the Electoral College;
2. Republicans have tried to contest Pennsylvania for 16 years now and have come up short every time. The state is reliably Democratic. Yes, the last two contests have been close there, but polling this year shows Obama so far ahead that McCain's gamble seems pretty desperate;
3. Should McCain somehow pull PA into the GOP column, I still don't see how the math works for him. Put Colorado, Iowa, and NM into Obama's column, add Virginia (where the Democrat is also leading by double digits) and Nevada (also an Obama lead), and McCain still loses.
This is the sure sign of a campaign in dire straits. They're flailing about before the final plunge.
20 October 2008
Future of Respect
Quote of the Day:
It is absolutely vital that Prop 8 fails. I know I've asked before, but I'm asking again - and will keep asking between now and Election Day - please throw a few bucks the No on Prop 8 campaign. Even if it's just $5...every little bit helps.
Click here to donate.
We can’t tell the voters that they can vote against Prop 8 on one hand, and preserve a homophobic public policy on the other. They can’t, and they know it and we should have asked, not just for the status quo of the last five months, but for a future of respect. We could have described that future in an attractive way and I think we’d be in better shape today if we had.-Ann Rostow in the Bay Area Times, predicting that discrimination will be added to the California State Constitution via Proposition 8.
It is absolutely vital that Prop 8 fails. I know I've asked before, but I'm asking again - and will keep asking between now and Election Day - please throw a few bucks the No on Prop 8 campaign. Even if it's just $5...every little bit helps.
Click here to donate.
The Palin Factor
As the Obama endorsements keep piling up (especially in the Republican-leaning papers), I am noticing one complaint in particular that keeps rearing its ugly head in editorial after editorial. See if you can find the common thread...
When picking a running mate, Obama made a solid choice, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware...McCain countered with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who energized the GOP's conservative base and wowed many Americans with her speech at the Republican convention. Since then, though, the Sandpoint native and University of Idaho graduate has not convincingly shown she is ready for the White House.
Of great concern is McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. Like Obama, she has little experience in governing, but unlike the Illinois senator, she is a candidate of little intellectual curiosity who appears to be hopelessly unready to be president. The fact that people are confused by the difference between Palin and comedian Tina Fey's caustic impersonation is clear evidence that Palin should not be, as they say, a heartbeat away from the presidency.
Most egregiously for a man of advanced age who knew how important this decision could be, he chose the unqualified Gov. Sarah Palin to be his vice president.
McCain failed in his most important executive decision. Give him credit for choosing a female running mate--but he passed up any number of supremely qualified Republican women who could have served. Having called Obama not ready to lead, McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. His campaign has tried to stage-manage Palin's exposure to the public. But it's clear she is not prepared to step in at a moment's notice and serve as president. McCain put his campaign before his country.
Perhaps the worst mistake McCain made in his campaign for the White House was the choice of the inexperienced and inflammatory [Sarah] Palin as his vice-presidential running mate.
Is McCain Giving Up On the Popular Vote?
NBC's Chuck Todd thinks so:
It's almost as if the McCain campaign is conceding the popular vote. We're seeing a lot of tightening in places that while Obama probably won't carry them, he's not going to lose by large margins. That means the McCain path is solely now an electoral college path, and if he wins the Electoral College, it's hard to see how he actually wins the popular vote.That's one of the surest signs of a losing campaign. In the last days of his campaign, Michael Dukakis attempted to map out an electoral vote win/popular vote loss scenario in 1988...and we all know how that went down.
"I took my love, I took it down..."
Today's Song of the Day is dedicated to Brent.
After a week-and-a-half it's nice to have you back home. Here is one of your favorites...
"Landslide" by Fleetwood Mac
After a week-and-a-half it's nice to have you back home. Here is one of your favorites...
"Landslide" by Fleetwood Mac
19 October 2008
Republicans For Obama
Meet Dr. Robert Newton, a lifelong Republican, and watch as he explains why he'll cast his vote for Barack Obama on November 4...
Two Weeks, Two Days
With two weeks and two days to go, this morning's Gallup tracking poll shows a ten-point lead for the Democratic ticket...
But as Obama himself said earlier in the week, this is no time to rest on our laurels. This race will likely tighten as Election Day approaches and he needs to have every possible voter show up at their polling place to cast their ballot. Despite the polling, I actually have no idea how this race will end. I'm confident, but I won't believe an Obama victory until he reaches that 270 pinnacle in the Electoral College on November 4th.
These next two weeks are bound to get twice as ugly as things have already been. Don't let that crap get to you, know hope, and - above all - make sure to vote!
But as Obama himself said earlier in the week, this is no time to rest on our laurels. This race will likely tighten as Election Day approaches and he needs to have every possible voter show up at their polling place to cast their ballot. Despite the polling, I actually have no idea how this race will end. I'm confident, but I won't believe an Obama victory until he reaches that 270 pinnacle in the Electoral College on November 4th.
These next two weeks are bound to get twice as ugly as things have already been. Don't let that crap get to you, know hope, and - above all - make sure to vote!
Powell Endorses Obama
In his endorsement of Barack Obama this morning on Meet the Press, Colin Powell seemed to vocalize what many Americans of the political center and, more importantly, what many of the old Republican Party of Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan have been thinking of the McCain/Palin campaign: That Obama clearly has the intelligence and steadiness to be president, that McCain essentially proved a severe lack of judgment when he put Sarah Palin on the ticket, and that the Republican Party of the 21st century needs some time in the political wilderness.
The Powell endorsement could very well move enough retired military voters over to Obama in key states like Florida and North Carolina.
And should Obama win the White House, Powell might just wind up as his Secretary of Education.
18 October 2008
He's Just Not Making Sense Anymore
Not that he ever really did. John McCain, in North Carolina just now:
Ok...I'm not an expert on tax policy, but it seems to me that that "40% of Americans pay no income taxes" is a bit of a stretch. I think the real figure on that is below 5%.
McCain/Palin: Liars from Hell.
Update: MSNBC is reporting that Sarah Palin brought up Rev. Jeremiah Wright on her campaign plane this morning. Ummm...Sarah...do you REALLY want to go there?
You might ask "how do you cut income taxes for 90% of Americans when more than 40% pay no income taxes right now? How do you reduce the number "0?" Well, that's the key to Barack Obama's whole plan. Since you can't reduce taxes on those who pay $0, the Government would write them all checks called a tax-credit, and the Treasury will have to cover those checks by taxing other people, including a lot of folks just like Joe."...the plumber who isn't a plumber and who is in violation of tax laws," he failed to add.
Ok...I'm not an expert on tax policy, but it seems to me that that "40% of Americans pay no income taxes" is a bit of a stretch. I think the real figure on that is below 5%.
McCain/Palin: Liars from Hell.
Update: MSNBC is reporting that Sarah Palin brought up Rev. Jeremiah Wright on her campaign plane this morning. Ummm...Sarah...do you REALLY want to go there?
17 October 2008
Holy Crap
The Chicago Tribune, whose editorial page has always been strong for the Republicans, has endorsed Barack Obama for the presidency. It's the first time the paper has endorsed a Democrat for that office.
Their endorsement, in full:
Their endorsement, in full:
However this election turns out, it will dramatically advance America's slow progress toward equality and inclusion. It took Abraham Lincoln's extraordinary courage in the Civil War to get us here. It took an epic battle to secure women the right to vote. It took the perseverance of the civil rights movement. Now we have an election in which we will choose the first African-American president . . . or the first female vice president.
In recent weeks it has been easy to lose sight of this history in the making. Americans are focused on the greatest threat to the world economic system in 80 years. They feel a personal vulnerability the likes of which they haven't experienced since Sept. 11, 2001. It's a different kind of vulnerability. Unlike Sept. 11, the economic threat hasn't forged a common bond in this nation. It has fed anger, fear and mistrust.
On Nov. 4 we're going to elect a president to lead us through a perilous time and restore in us a common sense of national purpose.
The strongest candidate to do that is Sen. Barack Obama. The Tribune is proud to endorse him today for president of the United States.
On Dec. 6, 2006, this page encouraged Obama to join the presidential campaign. We wrote that he would celebrate our common values instead of exaggerate our differences. We said he would raise the tone of the campaign. We said his intellectual depth would sharpen the policy debate. In the ensuing 22 months he has done just that.
Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them.
We can provide some assurance. We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.
We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.
The change that Obama talks about so much is not simply a change in this policy or that one. It is not fundamentally about lobbyists or Washington insiders. Obama envisions a change in the way we deal with one another in politics and government. His opponents may say this is empty, abstract rhetoric. In fact, it is hard to imagine how we are going to deal with the grave domestic and foreign crises we face without an end to the savagery and a return to civility in politics.
This endorsement makes some history for the Chicago Tribune. This is the first time the newspaper has endorsed the Democratic Party's nominee for president.
The Tribune in its earliest days took up the abolition of slavery and linked itself to a powerful force for that cause--the Republican Party. The Tribune's first great leader, Joseph Medill, was a founder of the GOP. The editorial page has been a proponent of conservative principles. It believes that government has to serve people honestly and efficiently.
With that in mind, in 1872 we endorsed Horace Greeley, who ran as an independent against the corrupt administration of Republican President Ulysses S. Grant. (Greeley was later endorsed by the Democrats.) In 1912 we endorsed Theodore Roosevelt, who ran as the Progressive Party candidate against Republican President William Howard Taft.
The Tribune's decisions then were driven by outrage at inept and corrupt business and political leaders.
We see parallels today.
The Republican Party, the party of limited government, has lost its way. The government ran a $237 billion surplus in 2000, the year before Bush took office -- and recorded a $455 billion deficit in 2008. The Republicans lost control of the U.S. House and Senate in 2006 because, as we said at the time, they gave the nation rampant spending and Capitol Hill corruption. They abandoned their principles. They paid the price.
We might have counted on John McCain to correct his party's course. We like McCain. We endorsed him in the Republican primary in Illinois. In part because of his persuasion and resolve, the U.S. stands to win an unconditional victory in Iraq.
It is, though, hard to figure John McCain these days. He argued that President Bush's tax cuts were fiscally irresponsible, but he now supports them. He promises a balanced budget by the end of his first term, but his tax cut plan would add an estimated $4.2 trillion in debt over 10 years. He has responded to the economic crisis with an angry, populist message and a misguided, $300 billion proposal to buy up bad mortgages.
McCain failed in his most important executive decision. Give him credit for choosing a female running mate--but he passed up any number of supremely qualified Republican women who could have served. Having called Obama not ready to lead, McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. His campaign has tried to stage-manage Palin's exposure to the public. But it's clear she is not prepared to step in at a moment's notice and serve as president. McCain put his campaign before his country.
Obama chose a more experienced and more thoughtful running mate--he put governing before politicking. Sen. Joe Biden doesn't bring many votes to Obama, but he would help him from day one to lead the country.
McCain calls Obama a typical liberal politician. Granted, it's disappointing that Obama's mix of tax cuts for most people and increases for the wealthy would create an estimated $2.9 trillion in federal debt. He has made more promises on spending than McCain has. We wish one of these candidates had given good, hard specific information on how he would bring the federal budget into line. Neither one has.
We do, though, think Obama would govern as much more of a pragmatic centrist than many people expect.
We know first-hand that Obama seeks out and listens carefully and respectfully to people who disagree with him. He builds consensus. He was most effective in the Illinois legislature when he worked with Republicans on welfare, ethics and criminal justice reform.
He worked to expand the number of charter schools in Illinois--not popular with some Democratic constituencies.
He took up ethics reform in the U.S. Senate--not popular with Washington politicians.
His economic policy team is peppered with advisers who support free trade. He has been called a "University of Chicago Democrat"--a reference to the famed free-market Chicago school of economics, which puts faith in markets.
Obama is deeply grounded in the best aspirations of this country, and we need to return to those aspirations. He has had the character and the will to achieve great things despite the obstacles that he faced as an unprivileged black man in the U.S.
He has risen with his honor, grace and civility intact. He has the intelligence to understand the grave economic and national security risks that face us, to listen to good advice and make careful decisions.
When Obama said at the 2004 Democratic Convention that we weren't a nation of red states and blue states, he spoke of union the way Abraham Lincoln did.
It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States.
President Reagan Endorses Obama
I've always said Barack Obama needs to run a Reagan-style campaign against the incompetence and failures of Republican leadership over these last eight years. While Reagan was running against a hapless incumbent in 1980 and Obama isn't in 2008, he IS running against Republican leadership in general. While McCain may not be George W. Bush, he will most certainly surround himself with a cabinet and advisers of the same political ilk.
And American can't afford another four years of that sort of governance.
(Shout out: Ben)
McCain on Letterman
Quote of the Day:
So...questions about Palin's readiness to serve in the event of an emergency, G. Gordon Liddy, domestic terrorists, about why, if McCain knows how to get bin Laden [and is holding out until after the election to do something about it]. This is a tradition as old as Wil Rodgers. The keenest questions do not come from the political professionals, they come from people like David Letterman. Nice work.-Keith Olbermann, on John McCain's appearance last night on The Late Show with David Letterman.
Ohio Falls Back to Toss-Up
Three new polls out of Ohio show a very, very close electorate:
Obama/Biden: 313 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 155 electoral votes
Toss-Ups: 70 electoral votes
(270 votes needed to win)
Even with Ohio in the toss-up column, Obama is still in good shape. If the Electoral College broke as I have it above, and if McCain were to pick up all of those green toss-up states, Obama would still have 43 more votes than he needs to win.
While I have previously put Ohio in Obama's column on previous maps, the latest polling out of that state leads me to agree with Sullivan:
I'm sure we'll need to watch for a "Bradley Effect" in other states as well, but if it exists elsewhere I do not believe it will be as deep and pronounced as it will be in the Appalachians.
Update: A new Insider Advantage poll shows McCain on top in West Virginia:
Zogby:These new conflicting figures put the Ohio formulation on Pollster.com at:
McCain 50%
Obama 45%
SurveyUSA:
Obama 50%
McCain 45%
Rasmussen:
Obama 49%
McCain 49%
Obama 49.0%Both candidates are under 50% and within three points of each other, so I am moving Ohio to the toss-up category. My take on the current Electoral College map now looks like this...
McCain 46.5%
Obama/Biden: 313 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 155 electoral votes
Toss-Ups: 70 electoral votes
(270 votes needed to win)
Even with Ohio in the toss-up column, Obama is still in good shape. If the Electoral College broke as I have it above, and if McCain were to pick up all of those green toss-up states, Obama would still have 43 more votes than he needs to win.
While I have previously put Ohio in Obama's column on previous maps, the latest polling out of that state leads me to agree with Sullivan:
I remain skeptical of Obama's real strength in the Appalachian states. Even if the Bradley Effect has waned elsewhere, among the older whiter voters in Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania, it still matters. You watch. That's why Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida are key.Just the other day I was telling Ben (who hails from West Virginia) the same thing; that it wouldn't surprise me in the least if a hugely racist reaction comes out of the Appalachian areas of Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. I think Pennsylvania has enough urban and suburban areas to off-set such a "Bradley Effect" in that state to keep it in the Democratic column, although it's no sure thing. I really do think Ohio could go either way and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if it stays red on Election Day. West Virginia, despite the recent ARG poll, will definitely stay in the Republican column.
I'm sure we'll need to watch for a "Bradley Effect" in other states as well, but if it exists elsewhere I do not believe it will be as deep and pronounced as it will be in the Appalachians.
Update: A new Insider Advantage poll shows McCain on top in West Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%
Will Powell Endorse?
Taegan Goddard reports this morning that former Secretary of State Colin Powell is scheduled to appear on Meet the Press this Sunday, leading the big question: Will he make an endorsement in the presidential contest?
This ought to be interesting.
This ought to be interesting.
Up In the Show-Me State
After leading by three-points last week, Barack Obama seems to be pulling away in Missouri according to Rasmussen:
Obama 52%I'm still not ready to move the state out of the "toss-up" category, although it's evident that the momentum there is in Obama's direction.
McCain 46%
16 October 2008
Say It Ain't So, Joe
That Joe-the-plumber guy? Yeah...he was a fake. From Political Insider:
It turns out that "Joe the Plumber" from last night's debate isn't a licensed plumber, owes back taxes, and his real name isn't even Joe [it's Sam]. Oh, and he's related to Charles Keating.
Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 7
Make no mistake: If McCain and Palin win this thing, America will have in effect endorsed bigotry and absolute stupidness. These people are beyond horrendous. And they are un-American in every sense of the word.
The Health of the Mother
Watch what John McCain does at the 0:13 mark. When this election is finally over, the Senator from Arizona will be able to point to this particular moment as the one that solidified the female vote for Barack Obama...
WTF?
WTF?
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