27 October 2008

The Electoral Map: Worst Case Scenario

Following yesterday's post in which I laid out the best case scenario for the Obama/Biden ticket in the Electoral College, here is what I believe to be the worst case scenario - how things might look if there is some sort of unforeseen Truman-style upset by John McCain...

McCain/Palin 296
Obama/Biden 242
(270 needed to win)

We need to remember that this election isn't over. While many Americans are voting early, a vast majority won't cast ballots until November 4th, and we won't know the results until that evening. That said, while Obama seems to be on track to a solid win, there are some factors that might derail him.

John McCain is pouring all of his resources into Pennsylvania, never mind that polling there shows Obama up by 10-points or more. The Republican is playing the race card (what other reason would prompt him to put all his eggs in such an impossible basket) and hoping the Keystone State will carry him over the finish line. If it works in Pennyslvania it will work in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, and could very well extend into Colorado and Nevada.

However...if McCain were somehow able to pull such a scenario out of his ass, he'd do so without the national popular vote, hobbling his presidency from day one.

But as of today, I don't see this scenario playing itself out. Nor do I see yesterday's "best case" as the final result. It will be somewhere in the middle...but only if Americans show up at their polling places in great numbers between now and Election Day.

So please...PLEASE...get out there and VOTE!

Tomorrow: I'll post a map based on where I believe things stand one-week out.