23 October 2008

Obama Way Ahead In Key States

I have no clue as to the accuracy of their polls are or how well respected their results are in the political community, but a new set of numbers from Big Ten Battleground show Barack Obama carrying the midwestern states by tremendous margins:
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Obama 52%
McCain 39%

Obama 58%
McCain 36%

Obama 57%
McCain 38%

Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Obama 52%
McCain 41%

Obama 53%
McCain 40%
I don't know...ahead in Indiana by ten points? The Hoosier State hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, and while it's definitely in play this year, a ten-point margin for Obama seems like an awfully big outlier. I'll want to see more polling out of this state before I move it from the toss-up category.

The gap in Michigan seems awfully big as well. I just can't believe Obama will win there by 19-points. Although...three other polls show Obama ahead there by 15-points or more, and McCain has given up on the state. So, who knows. (I still think Obama will win by less than ten in Michigan.)

The rest of the polling above jives with other polls in those states. Again, I'm no expert on these things and no one really knows what to expect on Election Day. But if I were the McCain campaign, I'd be shitting bricks right now.