22 October 2008

The Electoral College Outlook, Oct 22

Based on the composite state-by-state numbers as calculated by Pollster.com, here is how I see the Electoral College map as of this morning...

Obama/Biden: 320 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 218 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)

I've taken the states I listed as toss-ups last week and assigned them to a candidate based on how I think they will fall. Ohio and West Virginia go to McCain, as I think the Appalachian areas of those states will provide more than enough cover for the Republican ticket against Democratic tides elsewhere in those states. The same with Florida. In the end it's a Republican state and the northern "hick" areas there will provide McCain its 27 electoral votes. If a "Bradley Effect" still exists anywhere in the nation it's in Appalachia and Northern Florida.

North Carolina and North Dakota continue to look good for Obama so I've painted them blue here, although I think they can go either way. Virginia looks very good for the Democrats (more so that NC and ND) and I am about 85% confident that it will be in the party's column for the first time since 1964.

I'm no expert on these matters. This map is totally based on my unscientific reading of the polls, mixed with a half-hazard hunch on how each state will behave. But however close my map is to the eventual result, one thing is for sure: Things look extremely advantageous for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Even without the toss-up states, they still have enough electoral votes to claim victory.

For balance, here is how I see the map with toss-up states:

Obama/Biden: 286 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 186 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 66 electoral votes

On this map, states are listed as toss-ups if the polling figures on Pollster.com show both candidates are below 50% and have less than 4-points separating them.

I will revisit the map this weekend.