28 October 2008

The Electoral Map: One Week Out

Following the best case and worst case scenarios posted over the last couple of days, here is how the electoral map actually looks one week out. This isn't scientific in the least, it's just how I see things based on state-by-state polling averages as calculated by Real Clear Politics, with a little bit of a gut-hunch thrown in.

For this map, each candidate is assigned a state if their polling numbers in the state are over 50%, or, if they are polling under 50%, they are more than three points ahead of their opponent. I've assigned toss-up status to states where both candidates are polling under 50% and within three points of each other.

Obama/Biden: 338 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 153 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 47 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)

One caveat: Although the RCP average in Arizona shows McCain ahead of Obama by about 6%, I've added the state to the toss-up list because two polls taken this week show McCain with very slim leads there.

Again, I'm no expert at this sort of thing. My maps are based on my read of the state-by-state polling combined with an educated guess as to how things might look if the election were held today.

That said, I really do believe things look very good for Obama. But they're bound to tighten up here in the last seven days of the campaign, and that makes it all the more imperative that each and everyone of us gets out and votes. Whether you vote early or on Election Day...whether it takes 5 minutes or 5 hours...this election is too important for you to sit it out.

I'll revisit the map in a couple of days or so.