First, the polls:
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby:If I were a betting man, I'd say that the Rasmussen numbers are closer to what the final result will look like. I think the few undecided voters left out there have been on the fence as long as they have because of lingering doubts about Obama's "lack of experience" or because of underlying problems with race. If those two issues haven't resolved in the undecided voters' minds at this late date, they never will. As a result, they'll break for McCain on Election Day. But I don't think it will be enough for the Republican ticket to pull this out.
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 43%
Rasmussen:
Obama/Biden 51%
McCain/Palin 46%
ABC News/Washington Post:
Obama/Biden 52%
McCain/Palin 44%
However, a five-point margin in the popular vote should be considered a comfortable win. (By contrast, George W. Bush lost the popular vote by 0.51% in 2000, and won it by 2.46% in 2004.) And a five-point margin should translate into a solid Electoral College victory.
Here is the map, as I see it, heading into the final weekend:
Obama/Biden 353 electoral votes
McCain/Palin 185 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)
For reference, here are the winning totals of the last four presidential elections:
1992 - Clinton - 370As for the current map...Indiana and Missouri seem to be settling back into their conservative leanings. While the latest polls in those two states show a close race, McCain's small lead seems to be solidifying in each of them.
1996 - Clinton - 379
2000 - Bush - 271
2004 - Bush - 286
I'm dubious about Florida and Ohio. The polling averages at Real Clear Politics show Obama with single digit leads in every poll used to measure those numbers. Over the last two weeks McCain hasn't had a lead in any poll in either state.
Yet, my gut tells me they could go Republican very easily on Tuesday. Losing them would still leave Obama with 306 electoral votes, but before I turn them red on my final prediction map on Monday, I'll want to see what polling looks like after the weekend.
