30 October 2008

Sabato's Prediction: Democratic Tidal Wave

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics makes his preliminary Electoral College predictions for Tuesday:

Obama/Biden 364
McCain/Palin 164
(270 needed to win)

Personally, I think he's a bit optimistic. I'll re-visit the map myself later today or tomorrow, and will post my final prediction on Monday after I see what the weekend polls do.

In the congressional races, Sabato sees Democrats picking up 7 to 8 seats in the Senate and 26 to 35 seats in the House. Moreover, in the Senate, he sees none of the incumbent Democrats losing their seats while Republicans Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Gordon Smith of Oregon, Ted Stevens of Alaska, and John Sununu of New Hampshire look to be defeated.