Pollster.com plots all of the state-by-state polling and then calculates a "regression trend estimate" (rather than averages). The site's current figures for the so-called "toss-up" states?
Michigan:CNN, NBC, and the Washington Post, among others, need to stop categorizing these states as "toss-ups." I fully understand that the numbers could change over the next three weeks, but at this point the states are not toss-ups. They are, at the very least, light blue.
Obama 55.8%
McCain 37.4%
Pennsylvania:
Obama 52.7%
McCain 40.2%
Minnesota:
Obama 49.8%
McCain 44.4%
Florida:
Obama 51.2%
McCain 44.4%
Wisconsin:
Obama 50.4%
McCain 43.6%
Virginia:
Obama 50.3%
McCain 46.5%
Colorado:
Obama 51.7%
McCain 43.7%
Based on the Pollster.com numbers, this is how I think the electoral map looks as of this morning, with the green states falling into the "toss-up" category as I define it (both candidates under 50% and within three-points of each other):
Obama/Biden: 333 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 155 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 50 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)
McCain could win all six of the states I see as "toss-ups" (a pretty tall order) and he would still lose the election.
Side note on Minnesota: While the Pollster.com number has Obama just under 50%, several recent polls show Obama pulling away big time. One poll has the Democrat up 51-40, another 54-40, and yet another 55-37. The last couple of elections were close in Minnesota, but this is a state that hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election since 1972. In fact, it was the only state that voted for Democrat Walter Mondale in the 1984 Reagan landslide. I would call that "reliably Democratic," wouldn't you? And with Obama's current numbers showing a rout in the North Star state, I would say it is safe to move it from the "toss-up" category and into the "solid Obama" column.
