There's a big anti-Republican wave out there. But that wave will crash up against a very stable political structure, so we won't be sure of the exact scope of Democratic gains until election night. We really don't yet know which is ultimately more important - the size of the wave or the stability of the structure.-Pollster Mark Mellman.
Until late last month I wasn't all that certain that the Democrats would make the gains necessary to win back the House of Representatives. And even now, as the Republican Party seems to be crashing in on itself, I still believe that if the Democrats regain majority status, it won't be of blowout proportions.
The "structure" Mellman speaks of is a combination of gerrymandering (drawing districts in odd shapes - many districts have miles-long stretches that are all of 50 yards in width - to help keep them in Republican hands) and a strong evangelical vote. And while evangelicals may stay home on November 7th, those who do vote will instictively vote Republican.
So at this point I think the Democrats may pick up the 15 seats they need for control, but their majority will be paper thin. And the Senate will probably stay Republican, but barely.
I think.
