The 2008 Landscape

On Tuesday conservative columnist Bruce Bartlett essentially conceded the 2008 presidential election to the Democratic ticket:

As each day passes, it becomes increasingly clear that the Democrats will win the White House next year. It’s not quite 1932, but it’s getting close to a sure thing.

...At some point, politically sophisticated conservatives will have to recognize that no Republican can win in 2008 and that their only choice is to support the most conservative Democrat for the nomination. Call me crazy, but I think that person is Hillary Clinton.

I know Bill Clinton won his first term with significant support from Republican voters, but Hillary? Something tells me not so much.

And in this morning's USA Today, Susan Page lists five reasons the Republican ticket faces a daunting task next year:

- The Iraq War.
- Enthusiasm. Democrats have more this time.
- Numbers. The number of voters who say they are Republicans has fallen.
- Money. More of it is going to Democrats.
- A hunger for change.

Page goes on to cite a well-known presidential formula that has predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every election since 1860:

...six of 13 "keys" have turned against the GOP, enough to forecast defeat of the party that holds the White House.

It would do everybody - especially giddy Democrats - a world of good to remember two things. First and foremost, the election is a year-and-a-half away. Neither party has chosen their nominee.

What difference does that make? Well, a generic nameless Democrat beats a generic nameless Republican by an enormous 13-point margin. But when you ask voters about a Hillary vs Giuliani match-up, Republican Rudy beats Democrat Hillary by 5-points.

Secondly, a year-and-a-half before the 1992 election George H. W. Bush was unbeatable. The coming contest was going to be a cake-walk for him. By early 1992 things had drastically changed, and on Election Day he lost re-election with one of the lowest popular vote totals (37%) for a sitting president in U.S. history.

Don't get me wrong, I'm quite optimistic about next year. But until the nominees are chosen and we know what foreign policy and economic indicators look like in early 2008, it would probably do us all well to keep that optimism in check.