I am uncomfortable making predictions of House and Senate races this year. As expected the Karl Rove machine has felt the need to break election laws and have spent the last 2 or 3 days "robo-calling" voters with harrassing calls that they hope will depress Democratic turn out.
It may work in some areas, it may not in others. But I think Republican turn out may be depressed a bit this year as well. The administration's incompetence in Iraq and on matters of federal spending, followed in short order by the Mark Foley and Ted Haggard scandals, may leave hardcore Bush Republicans at home or holding their noses and voting Democratic.
Then again, I don't put anything past these people.
On the House side, I'll predict a 20 to 25 seat gain for Democrats in the House...more than they need to regain control of that chamber.
The Senate is going to be where all the suspense is tonight. The Democrats will easily take Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio. But they would need to pick up four more for control on that side of the Capitol.
After being tied all year Missouri seems to be trending the Democrats way over the last two or three days as undecideds figure out how they'll vote. Then again, the state has a strong rural/evangelical voter base that may swing this back to the Republican incumbent.
In Montana, incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns has been fighting for his political life all year. But a visit by President Bush on his behalf last week seems to have stoked the Republican base and the race has tightened. I still think Democrat Jon Tester can pull out a win, but it will be mighty close.
Although polls in Virginia show the race between Republican Sen. George Allen and Democratic challenger (and former Navy Secretary) Jim Webb to be close, I think Webb has the edge here. Like Missouri and Montana it will be a nail biter, but I think Webb will pull it out. Allen's self-inflicted wounds seem to have done him in.
Rhode Island is one of the most Democratic states in the nation. But Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee has been the most liberal Republican in the Senate, voting against President Bush in 2004, and against Samuel Alito's nomination to the Supreme Court. Will it be enough to keep the Ocean State on his side? He's only a point or so behind right now. This one I can't call.
And then there's Maryland. This seat is currently held by a Democrat (Sarbanes, who is retiring). The contest has been leaning Democratic all year but has tightened a bit in the last few weeks. The Democrat has a 4 point lead right now but the final result could be less than that. If the Republican prevails here, then the Democrats won't win control of the Senate. It's that simple.
And so, the Democrats will win anywhere from 3 to 6 seats tonight. It will all depend on which party has the best turn out operation in each respective state.
Deep breath, here we go.
