On A Wing and A Prayer

The polls were supposed to tighten this weekend. That's what all the political pundits were predicting. That is usually what happens as Election Day approaches. But the national polls released today show Obama leading by anywhere from 5 to 11 points. The state polls, however, show a tighter race in the Electoral College. And it is based on those numbers that I offer a rather sober prediction of tomorrow's outcome.

While most of the professional number-crunchers are predicting a victory of between 338 and 364 electoral votes for the Democratic ticket, I actually think the final numbers will be lower...

Obama/Biden: 311 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 227 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)

In the end, it comes down to two things:

1. Democrats always underperform the pre-election polls. Thus, I think Obama's final popular vote number will be closer to 50% - 51%, not the 53% or 54% a couple of the polls are showing.

2. Race will be a factor in a couple of states. Pollster.com shows Obama leading by very small averages in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and North Dakota. However, I think his race will hurt him in those states and he will lose each by very small margins. Real Clear Politics gives Florida to Obama, but I don't trust that state in the least. In the end I think the white trash folks up in the northern part of the state will give McCain enough of a cushion to carry the state for the Republicans.

Although my map gives Ohio to Obama, I believe the state is tied at the moment and could easily move the other way. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if it goes for McCain tomorrow, leaving Obama with 291 electoral votes (more than enough to win - and more than either of Bush's two elections). But you can bet yer bippy that if Obama's final tally in the Electoral College is 291, pundits and politicians will be calling his victory shallow and weak.

I am no expert at this. I hope beyond hope that I will be wrong tomorrow night and that the guys at RCP, Electoral-Vote, FiveThirtyEight, and Crystal Ball will be right on the money. But my faith in the American people isn't strong; and while I believe Barack Obama is on track to win this thing, my gut tells me American voters will deny him the Reagan-style mandate many are predicting.