12 February 2008

Obama's Coalition

New poll from USA Today/Gallup:
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Clinton 48%
McCain 49%
That Obama number is significant. No Democrat has won 50% or more of the popular vote since 1976. (Remember...while Bill Clinton won the national vote comfortably, his two elections included 19% and 8% of the vote respectively for Ross Perot, thus keeping everyone's vote percentages down.)

There have been stories from states where it is allowed, on each of the election nights this primary season, of independents and disenchanted Republicans showing up at their polling place and casting ballots in the Democratic contests for Sen. Obama. His appeal is so broad that I see him having the much better chance of winning a comfortable victory in November and bringing with him enough Republicans and independents that he would turn a few red states blue.