New Polls and a Map

The Reuters/Zogby poll released earlier this week showing John McCain leading Barack Obama by 5 points had to be an outlier. Zogby has been notoriously bad at getting solid numbers the last couple of election cycles, so one must take anything he puts out there with that caveat. Several other polls released since then have shown Obama leading McCain, although those leads have shrunk to an average of 2 or so points.

Obviously McCain's "everything and the kitchen sink" gutter campaign (shades of Hillary Clinton - don't be surprised - I told you the Republicans would pick up her talking points and run with them) seems to have put a dent in Obama's earlier polling leads. But despite that he still leads the Republican nominee, who can't seem to get himself above the 44% mark in poll after poll.

Republicans seem to be falling into line as well. And that shows itself quite starkly in the latest state-by-state polling. If the election were held today, the Electoral College tally would result in a 269 to 269 tie, throwing the election for president into the new House of Representatives in January and the election for vice-president into the new Senate.

Here is the current map:


Obama 269
McCain 269
(270 needed to win)

Although Democrats are expected to control both chambers by increased majorities followng November's elections, if the presidential election is thrown into House of Representatives, each state gets one vote, with the winner having to have a majority (26 votes).

So then one has to look at the party breakdown in each state's delegation. The current House make-up shows 27 states with Democratic majorities representing them, 21 with GOP majorities, and 2 states with equal numbers of each. If each member voted along party lines, then Obama would get 27 votes to McCain's 21, making the Democrat president. The Senate (where it is one member, one vote) would go for Obama's running mate hands down.

BUT, House members aren't required to vote along party lines. And if Democratic House members in just 3 red states decide to vote for the Republican over Obama, then we very well could have McCain named president along with a Democratic vice-president.

What are the chances of an Electoral College tie? I would say, if polling stays close through November, they are larger than most pundits and political scientists admit. After all, everyone thought the popular vote/electoral vote split in 2000 could never happen in the 21st century...but it did.

But it is only August, the conventions have yet to take place, Obama and McCain have yet to pick their vice-presidential running mates, and most Americans won't really start paying attention to the election until after Labor Day. Remember, in 1992 Bill Clinton was running third behind the first President Bush and Ross Perot until a day or two into his convention when he took a solid lead.

So let's see how things play out over the next couple of weeks. There is no need to panic (I think McCain's "I don't know how many houses I own" remark is going to be an incredible boost to Obama), and these polls could change on a dime.