29 October 2009

Next Week's Off Year Elections

Two major political races take place next week. Here is what current polling looks like:
Governor of Virginia:
Bob McDonnell (R) 54%
Creigh Deeds (D) 36%

Governor of New Jersey:
Jon Corzine (D) 41%
Christopher Christie (R) 39%
Chris Dagget (I) 13%
The NJ race is too close to call. Corzine is extremely unpopular and Christie is your typical Republican bottom-feeder with matching low positive ratings. Corzine might pull this out, but whoever wins will have a hell of a time governing once the new term begins. If I had to guess, I'd say Christie pulls this out.

In Virginia, the Democratic candidate has run an extremely lackluster campaign, and it shows in his polling numbers. The commonwealth has a reputation for going back and forth between Democratic and Republican administrations, and after two Democratic terms they are on track to make the usual change.

Some GOP blowhards will try to hang the coming landslide around President Obama's neck, saying the Democratic defeat should be considered a referendum on his presidential performance.

That is bull shit.

In November 2001, President George W. Bush enjoyed 80% and 90% approval ratings in the aftermath of 9/11 and the start up of the Afghanistan War, yet the Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia won a comfortable victory.

No one, not even me, would say that result was a referendum on Mr. Bush.