What Happened?

John Aravosis at AmericaBlog:

If Hillary wins this, first, it's a huge victory for her. But - and the but is important - the debate will be as to how Obama had a double-digit lead coming into today and suddenly lost [it] in a matter of hours? We suspect there will be two schools of thought - either Hillary won because New Hampshire is racist, or she won because she cried. Either way, not a great message.

I wondered if that little tearful episode from yesterday was going to help her with women. Apparently it did, as exit polls show her carrying them by a 47% to 34% margin (Obama carried them by 5 points in Iowa). That could very well be all she needs to win New Hampshire tonight.

As of 7:25pm MSNBC can't project a winner and some of the college towns are still outstanding.

The Insurgent vs. the Establishment

Quote of the Day:

Since George McGovern won his party's [1972 presidential] nomination - never once has an insurgent candidate defeated an establishment candidate to acquire the nomination. That goes for both parties. In the 220 year history of presidential nominations, insurgents have defeated establishment darlings only a handful of times. A big reason is that the establishment sets the rules. An insurgent candidate riding a wave of grassroots support still has to contend with them. This does not mean that an insurgent cannot beat an insider. It just means that it is hard. Obama will probably win New Hampshire tonight. And he is in a very good position to win his party's nomination. But don't count Clinton out. She's the insider, the candidate of the establishment - and they have a habit of winning.

-Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics, reminding us in a nicely written piece that the Democratic race is far from over.

Click on the link and read his post. He outlines the process by which Hillary Clinton might still win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination at the convention in Denver this summer...even if Obama wins New Hampshire (and many subsequent contests) by a comfortable margin.

Doolittle, Too Late

Rep. John Doolittle (Fascist-CA), one of the few Abramoff-Republicans who survived the 2006 elections, seems to see the writing on the wall. Word is he won't run for reelection in November.

Know Hope

Quote of the Day:

I find the manner in which they've been running their campaign sort of depressing, lately. It was interesting in the debate, Sen. Clinton saying 'Don't feed the American people false hopes. Get a reality check, you know?' I mean, you can picture JFK saying, 'We can't go to the moon, it's a false hope. Let's get a reality check.' It's not, sort of, I think, what our tradition has been.

-Sen. Barack Obama, on ABC's "Good Morning America."

Two More NH Polls

It's not looking good for the Clinton camp.

Gallup/USA Today:

Obama 41%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 6%

WMUR-TV:

Obama 39%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 16%
Richardson 7%

Pissy and Shrill

This clip from last night's Democratic debate is the perfect example of why I think it would be absolutely fatal for the party to nominate Hillary Clinton for the general election in November. She's pissy, she's shrill, and I don't think American voters want an ice princess mother-figure scolding them from the Oval Office!



I talked with my mother this weekend. She hasn't made up her mind who to support in the Illinois Democratic primary, but during our discussion she said that she really thinks the country needs a woman president. I agree. But I don't think Hillary is that woman. When 51% of the country say flat out that they will not cast a vote for her, you are forced to wonder how she wins a general election. It comes down to a choice: Do we risk losing the White House for another four years? Or do we go another route, thank Sen. Clinton for what she has brought to the debate, and ask her to step aside?

For me, the answer, especially after seeing last night's exchange, is quite clear.

Little Miss Chloe

A series of pretty hefty winter storms are blowing their way across California this weekend. So what better time to post a summertime picture of our little girl! Taken by her Aunt Noel at Golden Gate Park this past August.

Another NH Poll: Obama Leads by 12 !

Another poll (this one from ARG), taken in the two days after the Iowa caucuses, shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 12 points!

Obama 38%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 3%

If Obama beats Hillary by a double-digit margin on Tuesday, then the Clinton candidacy will be on life support. The wave of enthusiasm that would result from a one-two punch by Obama would be too much for the Clinton campaign to overcome going into the Nevada and South Carolina primaries.

NH Poll: Obama Leads Hillary by 10%

From Rasumussen:

Obama 37%
Clinton 27%

Before the Iowa caucus, Hillary was leading by 3 points. Whether this is an outlier or a very strong post-Iowa trend, the Clinton camp can't be happy about this.

Dingleberry

Weekend levity, courtesy of the AP, by way of Kenneth in the (212):

Hillary, Shake Hands With Tomorrow

Quote of the Day:

...if she were around right now, Hillary Rodham the (Wesley College) commencement speaker would probably be an Obama girl.

-New York Times columnist Gail Collins, referring to "Goldwater Girl" turned liberal college graduate Hillary Rodham's political persuasion in the late 1960s.

And now Hillary reeks of political staleness. Her argument that she is the best candidate for change in government, that she is the breath of fresh air needed in the post-Bush years, seems to be falling on deaf ears.

In contrast, as another NY Times columnist opines, Barack Obama is about as close to the real thing as you can get. Bob Herbert's Saturday column is worth the read.

"Sometimes, Just Sometimes, There Are Nights Like This"

Last night's speech says it all. He is presidential.

He's Kennedy meets Reagan meets both Roosevelts with a bit of Bill Clinton thrown in for a little spice. Listen to his speech and you realize he is the epitome of what America needs right now. After 8 years of Fascist rule under the Bush/Cheney regime, Obama very well could be the perfect antidote. (And after 8 years of 3rd-grade-level book reports read by Mr. Bush, an adult-statesman-level speech would be oh-so-refreshing.)

More over, after listening to the Senator from Illinois speak last night, I don't know how the Democratic Party could even entertain handing the nomination to the shrill, calculating Senator from New York.

If you didn't see Sen. Obama last night then sit back and take a look. His comments will give you goosebumps...and your heart will swell with patriotism...

The Question of Race

There are still some on my side of the political spectrum who think the Democrats will do themselves a disservice by nominating an African-American for the presidency. "The United States isn't ready for a black president," they say.

That is a whole lot of cow pie. Remember, Barack Obama won in Iowa . That's about as white a state as there is (91.0% white, 4% Hispanic, 3% black), yet Obama won a huge victory there.

He's not Jesse Jackson, he's not Al Sharpton. He is the Democrats' Colin Powell - a true American with a strong sense of purpose and a competence many people feel comfortable with. His win in Iowa last night is a huge step forward in an America that has taken way too many steps backward over the last 7 years.

This Math Ain't So Fuzzy

Combine last night's Democratic and Republican vote in Iowa (356,000 voters) and you get the following overall result:

64.8% for the Democrats
35.2% for the Republicans

Of course the final result would be closer in a general election, but these numbers are "sa-wheet " for the Democrats heading into the fall.

Biden Will Drop Out

Sen. Joe Biden, my choice for the Democratic presidential nomination, will drop out of the race tomorrow morning after receiving only 1% of the vote in the Iowa caucuses.

I am quite surprised at the anemic showing, but think it would be the wisest of decisions for the next Democratic president to include the Senator from Delaware in their cabinet.

At this point I lean strongly toward throwing my support to Obama, but will make a final decision over the next couple of weeks.

Obama Wins Iowa

Under 30s, independents, and liberal Republicans were the key to his victory.

As of 6:43 PT She-Who-Is-Not-So-Inevitable-Anymore and John Edwards are battling it out for second place.

It looks like my guy will come in second to last.

Sigh.

Update:
It's beginning to look like Sen. Clinton will place third. As of 7:58pm, it's Obama 37.5%, Edwards 29.8%, and Clinton 29.3%. Though the margin between 2nd and 3rd is small, third will be a devastating P.R. blow to the former First Lady going forward.

Edwards was a sore loser. He didn't congratulate Obama, and that's just bad sportsmanship. If I remember correctly, he didn't congratulate Bush and Cheney when he was the Democrats' VP nominee in 2004. No matter how much you despise the other guy, in politics you always congratulate them when they beat you. What the fuck, man!

Update 2:
221,000 Iowans show up to caucus with the Democrats; 114,000 with the Republicans. Those type of numbers (in a state that went for Bush in 2004) well...if done right, it can be great news for the Democratic ticket this November.

Update 3:
Sen. Christopher Dodd will fold it up before tomorrow.

One Last Plea Before Iowa

Joe Biden for President.

My endorsement here.

And one more ad:

A Prediction

No, not mine. I have no idea how the vote in Iowa will go tonight. But Douglas Burns at the Iowa Independent believes Obama has the "big mo:"

Obama doesn't sound false notes. Growing up without a father, he is the amalgamation of many male influences and ultimately the product of his own journey of self-discovery. He is that rare person who truly understands himself, and no doubt sees parts of that self in all of us. We get this in Iowa because we are all about authenticity. There aren't that many of us in Iowa so you can't escape into the anonymity of the streets. You are at once known and accoutable -- which is the beauty of holding the caucuses here.

...When the story is told on Thursday night, the narrative will be a remarkable one: Obama will cobble together western Iowa counties with ivory towered college towns and eastern cities within the shadow of his Illinois.

I am a realist and understand that my candidate, Joe Biden, has only the slimmest of chances in the Iowa caucuses tonight. If I had to make a second choice, I can say with confidence it would be Sen. Obama. And the urgency to defeat Hillary is enough for me to hope beyond hope for an Obama win.

Around the Corner

A few weeks ago, when I made my decision about who to support in the Democratic presidential primary, I went on-line and purchased a Joe Biden bumper sticker. And believe me, it's tough finding campaign paraphernalia when your candidate is toward the bottom of the heap in pre-election polling:



So, imagine my surprise yesterday morning when I saw this on a small Toyota around the corner:

A True American

Rep. Tom Lantos (Democrat-CA), whose district includes a small portion of southwestern San Francisco and most of San Mateo County, announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election following a diagnosis of esophageal cancer.

Congress' only holocaust survivor, Lantos twice escaped from Nazi concentration camps before making his way to the United States. In a statement yesterday, the 14-term congressman said:

It is only in the United States that a penniless survivor of the Holocaust and a fighter in the anti-Nazi underground could have received an education, raised a family, and had the privilege of serving the last three decades of his life as a Member of Congress. I will never be able to express fully my profoundly felt gratitude to this great country.

As Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Lantos has taken the lead in holding the President's feet to the fire, holding over 20 oversight hearings on that debacle called the Iraq War.

My thoughts are with Lantos and his family this week.