03 February 2008

Close In California

What was a 12-point lead for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in California two weeks ago, is now a 3-point lead two days before the state's Democratic presidential primary.

It is clear the Senator from Illinois has tremendous momentum heading into Super-duper Tuesday, but two things should give election watchers pause:

1. California voters have been able to vote early by mail since January 7th. That means it's too late for those voters who thought they were decided when they marked those ballots for Sen. Clinton and have since changed their minds. It's also too late for those unfortunate voters who cast early ballots for John Edwards before he dropped out. Sen. Obama will have to do extremely well on Tuesday with the old-fashioned voters who actually walk down the street to their polling place.

2. Polling this past month has been notoriously off, so who knows how things will actually turn out. Obama may surprise everybody and hold his own, or Clinton may win a huge landslide.

Finally, for anyone out there who is still on the fence, how about a little "California Dreamin'"...