09 May 2008

A Banner Year?

By way of Marc Ambinder, here are the key data points of a memo released by the Democratic Party yesterday. The memo argues that the party could be in for a banner year. (COULD...remember...this is the DEMOCRATIC Party...well known for turning sure victory into a narrow loss!):
TURNOUT: Increase in voter turnout was high in every state in the nation. The lowest increase? Hillary Clinton's former home state of Arkansas, which saw an 18% increase in Democratic voter turnout. The largest? Kansas, home state to Barack Obama's mother and one of the reddest states in the union, saw their turnout increase by two-THOUSAND percent!

CONTRASTS: Republican turnout almost everywhere either stagnated or actually decreased.

YOUNG VOTERS: Turnout among the under 30s tripled or quadrupled almost everywhere. In Massachusetts young voter turnout shot up by 100%.

INDEPENDENTS: The percentage of independents voting in the Democratic primaries increased.

SCARY FACTS FOR REPUBLICANS: Per the DNC Memo, "In fact, in seven counties in Ohio — Putnam, Brown, Shelby, Belmont, Warren, Delaware, and Clarmont — the vote totals for our two Democratic candidates in the 2008 primary exceeded the votes for John Kerry in the general election in each of those counties."

REGISTRATION: In New Hampshire, 75,000 folks registered as Democrats on Election Day alone, exceeding the Democratic registration shift during the entire election cycle in 2000.
A look at a few recent Electoral College polls show Barack Obama competitve in long-time Republican states like Virginia and North Dakota, not to mention parts of Nebraska. I have a hunch, if all goes well, pundits and politicians will be a bit surprised at the final electoral map in November.