For the first time in a long while I'm not all that hyped about the Academy Awards. The excitement just isn't there this time around. So keep that in mind as you read my annual predictions...BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls" seems to have a lock on this category. Her performance was the best in the film, and her superb rendition of "And I'm Telling You I'm Not Going" will likely have Academy members marking their ballot for the "American Idol" star.
Remember though that the Academy doesn't seem to have the soft spot for "Dreamgirls" that many Hollywood insiders think - as evidenced by their decision not to nominate it for Picture or Director. If voters decide to continue their slight of the film, then "Babel's" Adriana Barraza could win one of those out-of-left-field upsets this category used to be so famous for.
But in this case, I think the trophy will go to Hudson.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Eddie Murphy is considered the frontrunner for his performance in "Dreamgirls" as well...but I'm thinking not so much. Murphy's reputation in Hollywood is still a bit tarnished, and to top it off he pissed off the Academy when he declined to sing his nominated song at the ceremony (all the other original singers have agreed to perform). And let's not forget that the universally panned "Norbit" was released just as ballots were being marked. That alone could cost Murphy votes.
I think Murphy may have burned just enough bridges to deny himself this trophy. So, I'll go against the grain and predict Alan Arkin will win here for his wonderful performance in "Little Miss Sunshine." He was hilarious in the movie; I'd even say he was better in it than Murphy was in "Dreamgirls."
Mark Wahlberg was great in "The Departed," but he and the remaining nominees will have to be content with their nomination certificates.
Murphy may still win. But if he loses, he has no one to blame but himself.
BEST ACTRESS:
Helen Mirren will win. Period. Her performance in "The Queen" was phenomenal. Should she lose Sunday night, it could be argued that the Academy has lost its way.
BEST ACTOR:
There is an interesting parallel going on here. Peter O'Toole has slowly become a sentimental favorite since the nominations were announced last month. But remember...to make up for past slights the Academy gave O'Toole an honorary Oscar in 2002. So it could be argued that Hollywood will bypass him in favor of Forest Whitaker's strong performance in "The Last King of Scotland."
Now, flashback to 1980. With no wins to his credit, the Academy awarded Henry Fonda an honorary Oscar. They followed it up one year later with a "real" Oscar for his performance in "On Golden Pond."
So Peter O'Toole can't be counted out. As I see it, he is just as likely to win as Whitaker. But, while O'Toole is a legendary actor, the truth is he is no Henry Fonda.
Forest Whitaker wins.
BEST DIRECTOR:
My choice here would be Paul Greengrass for "United 93." It was the most important film of 2006 and I was shocked to see it left off the Best Picture list. Unfortunately, Greengrass doesn't have a chance. The fight here is between the two big guns.
Why the Hollywood punditry thinks Clint Eastwood has a strong chance is beyond me. Yes, his direction of two epics that told the same story from opposing views was quite admireable; and in another time that would have won Eastwood the direction Oscar. But he has two wins in this category - for "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby" - not to mention the two additional Best Picture statuettes he won as producer of those films. Four Oscars in 13 years is enough, I think.
No...I think Martin Scorsese's time has come. After losing Oscars he should have won for "Raging Bull" and "GoodFellas," the Academy will finally (finally!) give Scorsese this prize.
"The Departed" isn't his best work, but it's a tremendous return to form after such weighty, Oscar-baiting films as "Gangs of New York" and "The Aviator."
BEST PICTURE
Whoooo...what a tough category this year. "Babel" and "The Departed" seem to have frontrunner status, but neither seem to have Hollywood's heart. As such, I have a hunch both will lose.
"Letters From Iwo Jima" could pull out a surprise win, but again...the Eastwood thing. "The Queen?" Perhaps. But I don't think so.
"Little Miss Sunshine" is said to be a big favorite of Academy members, however they usually like to give more serious films this prize. Enter "Babel" and "The Departed." The way I see it, each of the three has an equal chance at the top prize.
How do I think it will go down? "Babel" and "The Departed" cancel each other out, and by doing so will carry "Little Miss Sunshine" to a surprise win on Sunday night.
Then again, what do I know?
There you have it. To Ben, Daryl, Gil, Larry, Trevor, Jan, and Randy...see you on Sunday. To Susan, Jeff, Laurie, Beth and the gang...we wish you could be here. To the fam...miss you buckets.
Enjoy the show.
(Illustration: Chicago Sun-Times)
