Once again my movie-going habits fell by the wayside this year. Keep that in mind as you read this year's Oscar predictions...Best Picture
All indications point to an easy win for "Slumdog Millionaire." It's the type of film Academy voters like to honor, although "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" falls into that category as well. Either one of them, I think, has a shot; and if there is some sort of overwhelming liberal sentiment over the passing of Prop 8 in California, then "Milk" might upset. But the momentum is on "Slumdog's" side.
Best Actress
This is actually a two woman race between Meryl Streep in "Doubt" and Kate Winslet in "The Reader." Streep has won twice before, but the last time was in 1982. Still, three Oscars for acting isn't the norm (exceptions for Katherine Hepburn and Jack Nicholson), and Streep's 15 nominations to date are an award in and of themselves. Still, if the groundswell for Winslet isn't strong enough (and that is very possible), then a third statuette for Streep isn't out of the question. Don't count her out.
In the end though, I think Kate Winslet will emerge the victor on Sunday night. With five previous nominations in the past 12 years, the sixth time should be the charm for her.
Best Actor
Now THIS is a true horse race. In "The Wrestler," Mickey Rourke has achieved a career comeback that no Hollywood insider would have predicted a year or two ago. As a result, the momentum seemed to be on Rourke's side during the awards season. But Sean Penn, it seems, is enjoying a slight resurgence for his spot-on performance in "Milk." Some in Hollywood think liberal Academy members will mark their ballots for Penn in an effort to protest the passage of Proposition 8 in California last November. Then again, the Academy's conservative wing was able to block "that gay cowboy" movie from winning the Best Picture prize a few years back. So who knows?
The one thing going against Penn is the fact that he won in this category five years ago. And while that doesn't automatically rule him out (Hillary Swank and Jodi Foster won their first and second Oscars within the same time frame), it does decrease his odds a wee bit.
Despite the comeback, Rourke's reputation is rather sullied with the Hollywood insider types who make up the motion picture Academy. His bad boy, self destructive image could be enough to move votes away from him. Then again, Hollywood loves a comeback.
So, what do I think? It's a tough one. For my own sentimental reasons I'm going to predict Sean Penn as the winner here. His performance as Harvey Milk is the best acting I've seen since Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain."
Best Supporting Actress
As always, this category confounds me. There is no clear leader here and predictions from others are all over the place, with Penelope Cruz seeming to have the slight edge. Amy Adams and Marisa Tomei seem to be Academy favorites in recent years, but I think their chances of victory this year are small. Viola Davis will probably split the "Doubt" vote with Adams. That leaves Taraji P. Henson for her role in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." With 13 nominations, this presents the film's only real chance at one of the major Oscars. So I think Henson is the dark horse. And don't forget, the Academy is notorious for throwing curve balls in this category.
As for my prediction...I'll be safe and go with Penelope Cruz for her role in Woody Allen's "Vicky Cristina Barcelona." If the past is any indication (Michael Caine, Mira Sorvino, Dianne Wiest - twice), the Academy likes to honor Allen's actors in these supporting categories.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger wins. Hands down. Period.
Best Director
Danny Boyle takes it for "Slumdog Millionaire," unless there is a "Milk" or "Benjamin Button" groundswell.
Best Animated Film
WALL-E...like Ledger....hands down. Period.
