Out of 9,493 Election Day predictions posted on DailyKos (presidential popular vote, electoral vote, Senate breakdown, and House breakdown), my prediction came in at 8,553rd.
My predictions vs. the real results (in parentheses):
Presidential popular vote:The day before the election, I posted my thinking behind the predictions. You can see that post by clicking here. I thought for sure there was going to be a slight "Bradley effect." Nothing serious enough to lose Obama the election, but I thought white rural voters in Indiana and Ohio, as well as white confederates in North Carolina and Florida would swing those states to McCain.
Obama 51.2% (53.0%)
McCain 47.0% (45.6%)
Electoral College:
Obama 311 (365)
McCain 227 (173)
Senate:
Democrats 58 (58*)
Republicans 42 (41*)
*We are still awaiting the outcome in the Minnesota race.
House:
Democrats 249 (257)
Republicans 186 (178)
Needless to say, I was (and still am) beyond thrilled that I was wrong.
