11 January 2008

1 Last Thing On NH

We will never know for sure if there was some sort of racial disparity between what New Hampshire voters told pre-election pollsters and how they actually voted in the Democratic presidential primary. That said, a look back at the polls show Sen. Obama's numbers actually held up. Those who said they were going to vote for him did. What the polls didn't catch were the undecided voters...namely women undecideds who went almost completely for Sen. Clinton on primary day.

Additionally, exit polls out of New Hampshire show most of the voters who were set to cast ballots for Sen. Biden or Sen. Dodd, who both dropped out of the race following the Iowa caucuses, instead voted for Clinton, thus adding a few more votes to her overall total.

So, my gut tells me the result wasn't related to race. Rather it was about gender: women who had been on the fence between Iowa and New Hampshire came home to Clinton in those final hours.