Early Polling Vs McCain

State by state polling shows Clinton losing longtime Democratic states like Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. If an election were held today, McCain would win with 287 electoral votes to Clinton's 251. And my gut tells me McCain's numbers would be stronger on Election Day. I see him picking up Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. The map below shows Clinton winning those states:


Obama doesn't do much better, losing Minnesota (a state that hasn't gone Republican since 1972 (and the only state to go Democratic in 1984), but his margins in most of the blue states are wider that Clinton's margins. He loses to McCain none the less: 289 to 249.


As I've said before, polls done this early really aren't worth much. In early 1992, Bill Clinton was polling in third place behind the first President Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot. Clinton would go on to win the election comfortably (Electoral College: 370-168-0, Popular Vote: 43% to 37% to 19%).

In 2004, polls done in January predicted a 40 to 45 state landslide for George W. Bush. That November, he won only 30 states and a measly 286 electoral votes to John Kerry's 251. (The popular vote was close as well: 50.7% for Bush to 48.3% for Kerry.)

So take the maps above with those caveats. They're bound to look much different on Election Day.