A close electoral map invariably raises the specter of a possible split decision — with one nominee winning the popular vote and the other winning an Electoral College majority. As in 2000, this seems like a serious possibility.I still think Barack Obama has the potential to change the electoral map a bit, and think that his margin of victory in the popular vote will surprise a lot of people. But when a political pro like Rothenberg hints at the possibility of a 2000 replay, the stomach sinks a bit. I don't think Americans would stand for it only two elections following the 2000 debacle.
Obama is likely to [rack up massive] votes in Illinois, New York and California (winning them with large majorities), and he may gain some ground in normally Republican states [in the South and West] — getting closer than most Democrats normally do in those states, but not winning them.
If this happens, and if Obama narrowly loses one or two larger, traditionally Democratic states, such as Michigan...we could see an updated version of 2000, with McCain winning the White House at the same time that Obama gets more than half a million more votes.
The real danger would be very Bush-esque: McCain losing the popular vote yet governing as if he had a conservative mandate, even though Americans voted for more liberal-leaning leadership. If such a split decision occurs I would highly urge electors to place McCain in the top job and then, in states where they're not legally bound to cast their ballots based on how their state voted, turn around and make Obama his vice-president. Vice-versa if the split decisions is reversed (Obama winning the Electoral College and McCain winning the popular vote).
There is historic precedent of sorts. During America's first four presidential elections, the vice-president was the man who came in second in the Electoral College (John Adams was George Washington's VP and Thomas Jefferson was John Adams' VP. Each man came in second to the winning candidate.)
But whatever the case, whether a Democrat or a Republican comes out on top in the national vote, I really think it's time to rid ourselves of the Electoral College. It served it's purpose during our nation's early years, but in the 21st century it is antiquated and only serves to illegitimize presidencies that are won without the popular vote.
