Today I'll start with two: A best-case Obama scenario (this post) and a worst-cast Obama scenario (the post below).
If nothing goes too wrong and everything falls into place, this is the best case scenario for Barack Obama as of right now:
Obama 318
McCain 220
With the economy in shambles and John McCain being George Bush's little bitch on the issue of Iraq, we could very well see some major Republican defections or, at the least, abstentions on Election Day. That could very well turn some formerly red states blue.
I think Obama will lose Michigan. Right now I think the auto unions distrust him, plus the state seems to have a soft spot for John McCain. New Hampshire also goes red on this map. Like Michigan, the "Live Free Or Die" state seems to be enamoured with Sen. McCain.
So be it. On this map Obama picks up Virginia, Indiana, and North Dakota (where current polls show him within striking distance or tied with McCain). Those three states haven't gone Democratic since 1964. PLUS Obama picks up a vote in Nebraska (another state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1964 and where electoral votes are distributed based on results in each congressional district).
I also painted Montana blue in this scenario. Polling there shows McCain winning within the margin of error. But I think with some heavy-duty hitting by Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Sen. Jon Tester, this state might be in the Democratic column for the first time since 1992.
New Mexico and Colorado seem to be leaning Obama's way right now, but he'll have to work for them.
And finally, it's a stretch, but I colored Georgia blue. Remember, this is a "best case" scenario. As such, I count on Georgia's favorite son, Bob Barr, to do well as the Libertarian Party's candidate, siphoning votes away from John McCain. Combine that with a strong African-American turnout in the Atlanta area and the state could upset most electoral predictions on Election Night.
November's final map probably won't look like the one above. But I think the media would do themselves a tremendous favor if they resisted the urge to approach this contest as another election in the mold of 2000 and 2004 (very close Electoral College results in which only three states flipped sides between elections). It's a long time to this year's election, but at this point I still think Obama has the chance to alter those maps just a little bit.
