Polls, Polls, Polls

Several polls released over the past few days show some real movement toward Barack Obama.

Newsweek:

Obama 51%
McCain 36%

L.A. Times/Bloomberg:

Obama 48%
McCain 33%

In the all important Electoral College, Obama looks to be giving the Republicans some major heartburn...

Indiana:

Obama 48%
McCain 47%

This is a state that hasn't gone Democratic for president since 1964. But it borders Obama's home state of Illinois, and he is the first Democrat to actually campaign in the Hoosier state - and run campaign ads there - in a long, long time. Indiana is the first state in which polls close on Election Day. Normally the Republican ticket wins so overwhelmingly that the networks are able to call it right away. I'll be watching the state like a hawk this year. If the networks can't declare John McCain the winner of Indiana's 11 electoral votes as soon as polls close then it will more than likely be a very long and painful night for the Republican ticket.

Pennsylvania:

Obama 46%
McCain 42%

The Republicans poured millions of dollars into Pennsylvania in both the 2000 and 2004 elections, hoping to bring the state back into their column for the first time since 1988. Both contests there were close, but Al Gore and John Kerry were able to beat back George W. Bush and keep the state blue. It looks to be close again this year; and the state's high senior citizen population is said to favor McCain. But Obama is more than holding his own. The poll above has him leading the Republican candidate by 4 points, and two other polls show him leading by 8 and 12 points respectively.

Michigan:

Obama 48%
McCain 39%

This surprises me. Although Michigan has been a reliably Democratic state since 1992, they have always had a soft spot for John McCain. That, combined with Barack Obama's tough talk to Detroit's auto industry over fuel efficiency, led me to believe that Michigan might be the one sure bet to turn from blue to red this year. McCain was up by four points in the Great Lakes state last month, but Obama has performed quite well in two polls taken this past week, including the one mentioned above. The momentum seems to be on Obama's side.

Based on these polls and averages of other state-by-state polls, here is how the Electoral College would break if the election were held today...


Obama 356
McCain 182
(270 needed to win)

And North Carolina and North Dakota are surprisingly close. If those two states swung Obama's way, his electoral vote total would be 374. Keep in mind that President Bush received 271 votes in 2000, and 286 in 2004. 356 votes for Obama would be considered a tremendous victory in comparison.

Will it shake out that way in November? Who knows. But things are looking really good a little more than four months out.