Obama 52%For comparison purposes, Kerry won PA by 2 points in 2004.
McCain 40%
And in Florida, a state I thought was going to stay in McCain's column all year, Obama has sneaked ahead of the Republican candidate:
Obama 47%On the one hand none of these polls mean a damn thing. At this point in 2004 John Kerry was leading in the all important Electoral College summaries; but George W. Bush was leading Kerry by about 3 or 4 points in the national popular vote...a small lead he never gave up through Election Day, when he won by three points and with the smallest Electoral College victory for a re-elected president since 1916.
McCain 43%
On the other hand, things are much different this time around. The President's approval ratings are around 25% and just about every American (80% or so) thinks the country is on the wrong track. These numbers are very reminiscent of President Carter circa 1980, a year in which the opposition party, led by Ronald Reagan, won the White House by 10 percentage points in the popular vote, and walloped the Democrats in the Electoral College 489 to 49.
Are we on track to another 1980? That remains to be seen. But the latest state-by-state polling is encouraging.
Just for kicks, here is what the electoral map would probably look like if the election were held today:
Obama 350
McCain 188
(270 needed to win)
(For contrast, Mr. Bush won in 2000 with 271 electoral votes and in 2004 with 286. Mr. Clinton won in 1992 with 370 and in 1996 with 379.)
