Three New Polls and a Map

Two new national polls and a poll in Virginia show Barack Obama with comfortable leads, outside the margins of error.

CNN/Opinion Research:

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

DailyKos/Research 2000:

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

In Virginia, a Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Sen. Obama moving into a sold lead over John McCain, with most of the movement in the Democrat's direction coming in the last few days:

Obama 51%
McCain 43%

I'd normally call the Virginia poll an outlier, but SurveyUSA, whose polling was absolutely stellar during the primary season, had a very similar result yesterday:

Obama 51%
McCain 45%

These two polls by no means indicate that Virginia is safe for Obama. It is, after all, a state that hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964. But, add those two leads to that the fact that North Carolina (last Democratic in 1976) is tied, and one has to at least wonder how stupendous it would be if, on Election Night, two states of the old confederacy vote for the first African-American president.

I'm not holding my breath, and I'll pay closer attention to the polls the last week before the election, but right now it looks promising.

And so here is the updated map, as I see it, based on the current polling:


Obama 286
McCain 237
Tied 15