Clinton vs McCain:
Clinton - 276 electoral votesObama vs. McCain:
McCain - 262 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)
My buddies Ben and Larry will be happy to see this result. Truth be told, I am as well. But the politico in me sees red flags. First and foremost, Clinton loses to McCain in Oregon and Washington. These are two states that haven't gone Republican since 1984. They went for Dukakis for crying out loud. If she can't hold on to the core Dukakis states, then what's to keep others from slipping out of her grasp after a bruising general election campaign?
To be fair, she puts her native Arkansas back in the Democratic column (her husband won his home state in both of his elections); and seems to be leading in Florida (that would be poetic justice for the 2000 debacle).
Other red flags...her margins in states where she is leading are pretty small, and her margins in most of the states she is losing are tremendous - which leads me to believe that if Sen. Clinton were to pull out the victory reflected in this poll, it would more than likely come with a popular vote loss. And I don't think the nation could bear another haywire election.
Oh...fair is fair...it would be oh-so-sweet to see President Hillary Clinton take the oath of office in front of Dubya having won the office the same way he did. But I'd rather she didn't.
Obama - 280 electoral votes
McCain - 258 electoral votes
Barack Obama's overall electoral vote lead is only slightly higher than Clinton's, however a deeper study of the numbers shows this map as a solid base from which to expand. His lead in the blue states is a bit stronger than hers, and McCain's lead in the red states isn't as strong against Obama as against Clinton. If Obama were to win as the poll shows, there is no doubt he would win the popular vote.
He keeps Oregon and Washington in the Democratic column; and while he throws Pennsylvania and New Jersey back to the GOP, he picks up North Dakota and Virginia - two states that haven't voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964.
He would even win 2 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes (like Maine, the state divides it's Electoral College votes based on results in each congressional district). Now THAT is quite the feat! Nebraska is one of the most Republican states in the nation when it comes to presidential voting (Bush won 64% of the vote there in 2004, 62% in 2000). If Obama can make in-roads there, then who's to say he can't pick off another super-red state (like, say, his birth state of Kansas)?
