So, voters head to the polls in Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island on Tuesday to cast votes in their presidential nominating contests. Conventional wisdom has it that Sen. Hillary Clinton will need to blow Sen. Barack Obama out of the water by significant margins in both Ohio and Texas in order to have any realistic chance at the Democratic nomination.
Clinton leads in Ohio polls, but her margin has dwindled from 17-points at the beginning of February to just one-point this weekend. In Texas, Obama has taken a 16-point lead for Clinton and turned into a 4-point lead for himself. Will it be enough to put him over the top in the Lone Star State?
I have to tell you...I'm nervous.
There has been early voting in Texas for the last couple of weeks, and those votes usually benefit Sen. Clinton. However, there have been reports that Obama's ground operation there has been stellar and that that may keep a strong early vote lead for Clinton pretty low - or erase it all together.
I am no expert on the voting trends of Texas, but despite Obama's slight lead in polling and the reports of a solid get-out-the-vote operation, there is something in my gut telling me that Texas could very well swing to Clinton on Tuesday night. I don't know if it's a distrust of the polling numbers or what, but I guess I just won't believe Obama will win until I actually see raw vote numbers.
Pins and needles, I tell ya...pins and needles.
As for Ohio, I am fairly certain Clinton will win there. And while I don't think her victory margin will be double-digit, I think it will be a bit more comfortable than current polling predicts.
Whatever happens in both states, the nomination will still be Obama's to lose. The delegate count still favors his candidacy. But if Clinton wins both big states, even by small margins, the pereception of a revitalized Hillary candidacy will knock Obama down a few pegs.
