The slim margin in the Texas popular vote and an additional caucus process in which she trailed made clear that she would not win enough delegates to put a major dent in Sen. Barack Obama's lead. And regardless of the results, she emerged from the crucible of Ohio and Texas with a campaign mired in debt and riven by dissension.Last night's results don't surprise me in the least. In fact, I predicted as much this past weekend (here) and yesterday (here).
That said, I just don't see how the math helps her in the long run. She needed at least 62% of the vote in all four states to make a dent in Obama's delegate and national vote leads. She fell well short of that goal, making the climb to the nomination steeper still.
None the less, three solid wins puts some wind in the sails of Sen. Clinton's campaign. She can keep going and see how things turn out in the next set of states. But again, she would have to perform impossibly well to have a prayer of catching up to Obama's overall lead.
As for Obama, this will test his mettle. He needs to prove he can bounce back from the vicious attacks the Clintons threw at him and regain his once solid footing. What the Clintons did to him is nothing compared to what the Republican machine will do this summer and fall. It shouldn't be too hard. He was knocked on his ass last night, but he's not bloodied and he still has a pretty substantial advantage going forward.
Can Clinton still win this thing? You bet. But it's going to be awfully hard.
How should Obama proceed? It's time to stop being Mr. Nice Guy. We're in the home stretch and now is the time to beat Clinton at her own game. He needs to grab that kitchen sink she threw at him this past week and throw right back at her. Remind voters of the psycho-drama of the 90s and ask them if they really want to go through that again. Confront Hillary when she attacks. (Rezko and real estate? Does "Ms. Whitewater" really want to go there?)
It will be a delicate balance. Obama is running on the promise of changing the tone in D.C., but in order to change the tone he has to win this thing. And that means fighting back hard.
So, roll up those sleeves Sen. Obama. It's time to get those hands a little muddy!
