14 October 2008

Obama Pulling Away In Key States

Several new polls have been released over the last day or two that show Barack Obama pulling away in key Electoral College states:
Obama 52%
McCain 43%

Obama 54%
McCain 38%

Obama 54%
McCain 37%

Obama 50%
McCain 45%

North Carolina:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%

Obama 51%
McCain 44%

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Obama 49%
McCain 46%
These are very encouraging numbers, but we have 21 days to go and in politics that is a lifetime. Things can turn on a dime, so there should be no rest for the Obama campaign between now and Election Day. They should continue to run the disciplined campaign they've been running, and they should continue to fight as if they're 10 points down.

As for the map, Pollster.com, an independent web site that tracks just about every poll out there, shows Barack Obama leading in states with a total of 320 electoral votes (50 more than the 270 needed for victory), McCain leading in states totaling 155 electoral votes, and seven states listed as "toss-ups" that total 63 votes. (Pollster lists Virginia as one of the toss-ups but I tend to disagree with that assessment at this late date. Obama has been ahead in every single Virginia poll - save one - since mid-September; and he has led by over 8 points in several of them.)

So...according to Pollster's analysis, even if John McCain were to win all of the toss-up states and then move one or two medium-sized states away from Obama, the Republican ticket still loses.

Advantage: Obama. But the last three weeks are critical, there's still one more debate to go, and this is, after all, America. I'll believe an Obama victory when I see it.