31 October 2008

Barack Obama for President

This presidential election is, without a doubt, the most important of our generation. Never in our nation's history has there been an era in which the responsibilities were greater for the United States, and rarely has a president been called on to meet such extraordinary circumstances for the homeland and the world. After eight years of lawless and incompetent Republican rule under George Bush and Dick Cheney, the United States and the world are in need of a tremendous reset moment; a sort of knocking down of the old evil empire, and a new, younger, progressive model put in place. The next four years require a steady hand, sound judgment, and a level of intellect not seen in the White House since January 19, 2001.

These times require Barack Obama.

Domestic Policy:

On the domestic front the nation's finances are in serious meltdown. Millions of Americans are losing their homes, millions more are going bankrupt, trillions of dollars in savings are gone, jobs are vanishing.

Eight years of incompetent Republican rule have brought us to this point. The U.S. Treasury has been pillaged, we owe trillions of dollars to foreign banks and have mortgaged our children's future to the hilt. Thanks to Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney, and their radical Republican philosophy, the future looks rather bleak.

By his own admission, the Republican candidate in this contest, John McCain, isn't the man the United States needs to tackle this economic crisis. His limited knowledge of American economics was on full display earlier this month when the financial sector was in serious meltdown mode. The Senator from Arizona "suspended" his campaign and flew to Washington in hopes of working with congressional leaders on a bail out package. There, in full view of the American public, McCain came across as erratic and unknowledgable - two traits the U.S. and world economies cannot afford as we navigate the rough seas of the next four years.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, kept a cool head, remained calm and steady, offered up solid proposals to get our financial house in order, and at the same time presented a blunt assessment of the situation that was refreshing in its honesty. (The recession has only just started and is bound to get pretty painful before it gets better.) Obama's cool-headedness is the perfect prescription to help keep the markets steady and America's spirits high. (Over the past month, the markets tanked every time President Bush put himself on television to discuss the crisis. Imagine what those markets would do with the bumbling and indecisive McCain in the White House!)

Foreign Policy:

In matters of foreign policy, McCain again comes across as erratic and flailing. While the surge in Iraq has squashed much of the violence there, the government of that country has become way too dependent on the United States. After six long years it's time for them to take the reins and govern themselves. It's time for American troops to pull out, regroup, and deploy elsewhere to fight the true battle against terrorism. McCain still thinks Iraq is the central battlefield of that war. He insists we must win in Iraq without really defining what victory would look like. In the mean time, al-Qaida and the Taliban are regrouping in Afghanistan and Pakistan; and, in what is probably the most reprehensible aspect of Republican incompetence these last eight years, the man responsible for the deaths of 3,000 U.S. citizens on September 11, 2001 remains free.

But make no mistake: Barack Obama does not want to "wave the white flag of surrender." He is not your stereotypical weak-in-the-knees Democrat. Obama will continue the fight against the radicals of the Islamic world but, unlike the current administration, he'll take the fight right to their doorstep. At the same time he'll work to empower the moderates in those countries in an effort to strengthen their numbers and reduce the chances that future generations will produce the suicidal cowards whose only goal in life is to bring down functioning, free, democratic governments.

On matters of foreign policy Obama's judgment is that of a solid, thoughtful, and grounded statesman. McCain's, however, is erratic and all over the map. Not what the globe needs as we finish out such a violent and tension-filled decade. Not what the United States needs as she tries to regain her status as the shining beacon of liberty, severly dimmed over the last eight years.

Judgment:

The differences in judgment between these two candidates - Obama's solid, thoughtful steadiness versus McCain's wild flailing - couldn't be more evident than in their choices for vice-president.

In Joe Biden, the Democratic ticket has an elder statesman, much respected around the globe, who epitomizes the essential definition of vice-president: He is more than ready to step into the role of president if need be.

As many readers of this blog know, Biden was my original choice for the Democratic nomination. As such, I look forward to seeing what the Obama/Biden ticket can do if they are fortunate enough to serve as President and Vice-President of the United States. They are an all-star team in my book.

And then there is Sarah Palin. By all measures John McCain essentially disqualified himself for the presidency when he tapped Gov. Palin to be his running mate. She is nowhere near qualified for the job...not by a long shot. Her tremendous lack of understanding of the vice-presidency (any third grader could tell you what the V.P. does), let alone the fact that she has little working knowledge of domestic and foreign affairs (a fifth grader is smarter), is more than enough to reject the Republican ticket outright on Tuesday.

The irresponsibility of McCain, a 72-year-old cancer survivor, to add Palin to his party's ticket is unfathomable. His decision to do so - one that could very easily result in a "President Palin" - should shake every American to their very core.

The Campaign:

The tumultuous general election campaign has provided American voters with two very different snapshots of two very different candidates.

John McCain's campaign has been absolutey vile. Rather than lay out his plans for the next four years, the Republican has managed his candidacy from the gutter - always cranky, always negative, always repulsive. Americans are foundering and find their futures hanging by a thread, yet John McCain and Sarah Palin have nothing to offer except Bill Ayers and over-the-top charges of socialism. They have spent the entire campaign tearing down Barack Obama and Joe Biden while they should have been presenting plans on how they would return America to her once admired glory.

For eight long years we've stood by as that glory has faded, as America's confidence has been battered and bruised. For eight long years we've watched as Lady Liberty's role as the beacon of freedom and prosperity around the world has been dimmed by the incompetence and lawlessness of Republican government. And now that very same Republican government wants us to pat them on the back, tell them what a wonderful job they've done, and reward them with another term in the White House?

Absolutely not.

American voters are swarming to Barack Obama's campaign because they know in their heart of hearts that the United States can't afford four more years of such governance.

Reminiscent of President Reagan's "Morning in America" campaign of 1984, Obama has presented a positive campaign that is strong on substance and provides Americans with an outline of what needs to be done to restore our nation's self-confidence. Barack Obama seems to tap a resovoir of patriotism (squashed these last two terms by the war criminals and constitutional shredders currently residing in the White House) at a time when we need it most.

Now more than ever, we need Barack Obama. Under his guidance, America will breathe a collective sigh of relief as we turn the page on the years of Bush and Cheney. Under his stewardship, America will once again stand as the beacon of peace and freedom to the rest of the world. Under his leadership, America will once again stand tall and proud.

It is essential that Americans elect him president on November 4.

Clinton Steps Up

President Clinton gives the No on Prop 8 folks a much needed hand with a robo-call:
This is Bill Clinton calling to ask you to vote NO on Proposition 8 on Tuesday, November 4th. Proposition 8 would use state law to single out one group of Californians to be treated differently -- discriminating against members of our family, our friends and our co-workers. If I know one thing about California, I know that is not what you're about. That is not what America is about. Please vote NO on 8. It's unfair and it's wrong. Thank you.
And now we are just waiting on you, Senator Obama.

You as well, Gov. Schwarzenegger.

"Or...OR..."


If there is a God, not even he will be able to save us if the Republicans somehow manage to pull off a victory on Tuesday.

Happy Halloween!


(Photo: Kamissa and Jon Mort of Providence, RI
By way of Yes We Carve.)

Three New Polls and a Map

Four days. The final weekend. Tuesday will take forever to get here, yet will be here in no time. Let's take a look at three new polls and my take on where things stand in the Electoral College.

First, the polls:
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby:
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 43%

Rasmussen:
Obama/Biden 51%
McCain/Palin 46%

ABC News/Washington Post:
Obama/Biden 52%
McCain/Palin 44%
If I were a betting man, I'd say that the Rasmussen numbers are closer to what the final result will look like. I think the few undecided voters left out there have been on the fence as long as they have because of lingering doubts about Obama's "lack of experience" or because of underlying problems with race. If those two issues haven't resolved in the undecided voters' minds at this late date, they never will. As a result, they'll break for McCain on Election Day. But I don't think it will be enough for the Republican ticket to pull this out.

However, a five-point margin in the popular vote should be considered a comfortable win. (By contrast, George W. Bush lost the popular vote by 0.51% in 2000, and won it by 2.46% in 2004.) And a five-point margin should translate into a solid Electoral College victory.

Here is the map, as I see it, heading into the final weekend:



Obama/Biden 353 electoral votes
McCain/Palin 185 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)

For reference, here are the winning totals of the last four presidential elections:
1992 - Clinton - 370
1996 - Clinton - 379
2000 - Bush - 271
2004 - Bush - 286
As for the current map...Indiana and Missouri seem to be settling back into their conservative leanings. While the latest polls in those two states show a close race, McCain's small lead seems to be solidifying in each of them.

I'm dubious about Florida and Ohio. The polling averages at Real Clear Politics show Obama with single digit leads in every poll used to measure those numbers. Over the last two weeks McCain hasn't had a lead in any poll in either state.

Yet, my gut tells me they could go Republican very easily on Tuesday. Losing them would still leave Obama with 306 electoral votes, but before I turn them red on my final prediction map on Monday, I'll want to see what polling looks like after the weekend.

Defending Freedom

A special group of Republicans against Prop 8...


My argument against soiling the state constitution with discrimination can be read here.

And one last plea to give to the cause. Please give anything you can to No on Prop 8 here.

"Something"

"Rearview Mirror"

Initiative Happy

Joe.My.God. posted a picture of his New York election ballot earlier this week...


Simple, to the point, not a lot of bullshit to mull through, no need to spend fifteen minutes in the voting booth.

Then there's California (12 initiatives) and San Francisco (TWENTY-TWO initiatives). Don't believe me? Click here and take a look at MY ballot!

It's ridiculous really, the way the Government of California passes the big decisions they should be making off on the voters, who don't do their homework and make misinformed decisions, tying the hands of the legislature and governor.

The way this state is run is a huge joke, and I blame it almost entirely on the fact that the voters are continually asked to make decisions on issues they have absolutely no business making.

Republicans For Obama

Meet John Weiler, a former Staff Sargent in the U.S. Air Force and lifelong Republican. On Tuesday, he'll be voting for Barack Obama.

End-of-the-Week Levity

"Hey, Sarah Palin"


(Shout out: B-man)

"So we're okay, we're fine...

...baby I'm here to stop your crying
Chase all the ghosts from your head..."

Your Song of the Day is the absolutely stunning "Power of Two" by the Indigo Girls.

Shady Pines

Quote of the Day:
People close to Clinton say that this baffles him, and pains him even more. And it's not hard to understand why. In Obama, he sees someone creating a new incarnation of the Democratic Party, one that has precious little to do with the version that Clinton fashioned... He sees himself being eclipsed. If Obama demonstrated that he needs Clinton's counsel, everything between them would be different. But Obama manifestly doesn't believe he does, and he refuses to pretend otherwise.
-John Heilemann, on President Clinton's campaign appearance with Sen. Barack Obama Wednesday night in Florida.

This is the first election since 1976 in which the names Bush or Clinton aren't on the ballot. I understand President Clinton's desire to want to stay relevant, and I'm sure if Obama is elected he'll want access to Clinton's counsel. But like the Bushes this January and the Kennedys before them and the Roosevelts before them, it's time for the Clintons to take a step back and let the new blood take the reins.

30 October 2008

"Everbody"

When Republicans govern they roll their eyes at those who are educated. They feel that the Bible and christianity trump a solid education. Well...here is what happens when American dumbs down...

Republicans & Independents For Obama

Sabato's Prediction: Democratic Tidal Wave

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics makes his preliminary Electoral College predictions for Tuesday:


Obama/Biden 364
McCain/Palin 164
(270 needed to win)

Personally, I think he's a bit optimistic. I'll re-visit the map myself later today or tomorrow, and will post my final prediction on Monday after I see what the weekend polls do.

In the congressional races, Sabato sees Democrats picking up 7 to 8 seats in the Senate and 26 to 35 seats in the House. Moreover, in the Senate, he sees none of the incumbent Democrats losing their seats while Republicans Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Gordon Smith of Oregon, Ted Stevens of Alaska, and John Sununu of New Hampshire look to be defeated.

"Constitution" and "Moms"

Two superb web ads have been condensed to fit the typical 30-second TV time allotment, and will begin airing in California today.





The argument the first clip makes is the one that opponents of Prop 8 should have been making from the get-go. Slam home the point that this initiative would write discrimination into the state constitution, and you peel away many voters who aren't for gay marriage but ARE for leaving the constitution out of such matters.

My argument against Prop 8 here.

Another request for donations: Please help the cause here.

"Look towards the future...

...leaving the past behind"

Thursday's Song of the Day is a superbly produced track from Fleetwood Mac's 1995 album, "Time."

"Sooner Or Later"

American Stories, American Solutions

Obama's 30 minute ad, in case you missed it (and if you did, I highly suggest you set aside some time and watch)...

29 October 2008

Mid-Week Brain Break

Ok, call me a dim bulb! When I posted this video on Saturday I didn't realize that the actors were the same ones that appeared in the original Budweiser ad eight years ago. It makes it all the more compelling. This ad needs to be aired this weekend...all over the football games and NASCAR races.

The new ad:



And, for reference, the original Budweiser ad:

"His Choice"

This ad needs to be played over and over and over and over again...from now through Election Day...

W.W.R.D.? (What would Reagan do?)

I posted this earlier in the month, but the point is one that needs to be hammered home. The arguments Ronald Reagan made in 1980 against the incompetent administration apply strongly to 2008.

Here we are, 28 years later, with an accelerated economic downturn and our global reputation in tatters. And the Republican government want us to pat them on the back, say "job well done," and reward them with a third term in the White House?

Without a doubt, it is clear: America can't afford four more years of incompetent and failed leadership.

Sarah Palin: Socialist

Hendrik Heretzberg on how the governor of Alaska likes to "spread the wealth around"...
The state that she governs has no income or sales tax. Instead, it imposes huge levies on the oil companies that lease its oil fields. The proceeds finance the government’s activities and enable it to issue a four-figure annual check to every man, woman, and child in the state. One of the reasons Palin has been a popular governor is that she added an extra twelve hundred dollars to this year’s check, bringing the per-person total to $3,269. A few weeks before she was nominated for Vice-President, she told a visiting journalist—Philip Gourevitch, of this magazine—that “we’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.

Feinstein Urges No on 8; Arnold Still Silent

Sen. Dianne Feinstein recorded a commercial against Prop 8 that started airing on TV last night. While I'm sure many appreciate the move, it's too little too late in my opinion. If this things passes by a close margin, I'll place a small bit of the blame at the Senator's door. She was the Mayor of San Francisco for crying out loud. Speaking out against this hate amendment should have been a no-brainer for her months ago.


And while we're on the subject of prominent, well respected California politicians...where the hell is Gov. Schwarzenegger on this?! In April he told the Log Cabin Republicans that he would fight against Proposition 8. But he has been stone-cold silent during the fall political campaign. A commercial from him could actually make a huge difference.

Coward.

A big thank you to the readers who have given money to the cause. If you haven't, I urge you to donate a few bucks here. There is still enough time to turn this around, and every little bit helps.

Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 12

One thing is for certain, the asshole you see here between 0:24 and 0:34 needs to be tracked down by the Secret Service and arrested. Last time I looked, threatening the life of a presidential candidate is against the law.

These people really are bottom-feeding scum, and they represent one of the many reasons why the Republicans should be defeated soundly on Tuesday. Now more than ever, America needs to turn the page. And these sorry, pathetic souls need be relegated to the trash bin.

Approaching the Finish Line



As I mentioned yesterday, we can't afford to rest on our laurels during this final stretch. An Obama victory is not a foregone conclusion. Every American who is registered to vote must cast their ballots between now and Election Day. Now more than ever, every possible American needs to exercise their right to vote.

Is Arizona In Play?

Two new polls would lead one to believe McCain is in trouble at home:
Cronkite/Eight:
McCain 46%
Obama 44%

Zimmerman:
McCain 44%
Obama 42%
These numbers may force McCain to make a detour in the last week of the campaign, from defending states Bush won in 2004 to defending his own turf. To be sure, I don't expect Obama to win Arizona's 10 electoral votes next week. But if McCain doesn't make an appearance there between now and Election Day, things may get pretty tight. And if there is some overwhelming Obama tidal wave of unexpected proportions, then all bets are off.

Third Grade Gay

Excellent new web ad...

Again with the Asians

Now they're putting their kids in their hypocritical, hateful, and vile commercials...


Fuckin' hypocrites from hell! Don't make me pull out the internment camp argument.

Oh..and "SOS"...those kids can't sing. Their caterwauling makes my ears bleed!

"One day I was one of life's losers...

...even my friends were my accusers..."
Your Song of the Day is this classic from 1981...

"Winning" by Santana

28 October 2008

The Electoral Map: One Week Out

Following the best case and worst case scenarios posted over the last couple of days, here is how the electoral map actually looks one week out. This isn't scientific in the least, it's just how I see things based on state-by-state polling averages as calculated by Real Clear Politics, with a little bit of a gut-hunch thrown in.

For this map, each candidate is assigned a state if their polling numbers in the state are over 50%, or, if they are polling under 50%, they are more than three points ahead of their opponent. I've assigned toss-up status to states where both candidates are polling under 50% and within three points of each other.


Obama/Biden: 338 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 153 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 47 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)

One caveat: Although the RCP average in Arizona shows McCain ahead of Obama by about 6%, I've added the state to the toss-up list because two polls taken this week show McCain with very slim leads there.

Again, I'm no expert at this sort of thing. My maps are based on my read of the state-by-state polling combined with an educated guess as to how things might look if the election were held today.

That said, I really do believe things look very good for Obama. But they're bound to tighten up here in the last seven days of the campaign, and that makes it all the more imperative that each and everyone of us gets out and votes. Whether you vote early or on Election Day...whether it takes 5 minutes or 5 hours...this election is too important for you to sit it out.

I'll revisit the map in a couple of days or so.

The Republican Clusterfuck

Quote of the Day #2:
It's a massive, unmissable clusterfuck and has been for two months. They just can't hide it any longer. And the pick is a devastating one ... [John McCain's] first major decision as a future president is one of the worst in American political history. That alone should be enough to seal his fate next Tuesday. You need nothing else.
-Andrew Sullivan, on the debacle that is the Palin candidacy.

Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 11

Video the Vote looks into reports of widespread "vote-jumping" on electronic touchscreen machines in Jackson County, West Virginia. In an interview with the county clerk, they filmed what happens when these machines are "out of calibration"...


Makes the stomach drop a bit, doesn't it?

Without a doubt, these machines need to be thrown in the trash heap. There is no reason (NONE) why every county in every state in the nation can't use paper ballots. Any method to cast ballots will have its holes to plug, but at least with paper ballots you can turn around and re-count if need be. I don't trust these electronic machines in the least.

One Week

With Election Day now one week away, Barack Obama is making his final argument. It's powerful stuff and pitch perfect as we head into the final stretch...

Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 10

A prime example of why it is so vital that the fascist hate-mongers of the Republican Party get sent to the trash heap next week:

Tic Tac...

...DOH!

You Know Your Campaign Is In Trouble...

...when dozens of call center volunteers get up and walk out rather than spew the Republican venom they've been asked to read.

Republicans Against Prop 8

There used to be a time when conservatives would have fought against soiling the state's constitution with anti-gay graffiti. The whole premise of old-school conservatism was to keep government out of our lives. In fact, in 1978 Ronald Reagan spoke out against the Briggs Amendment, a ballot proposal that would have banned gay and lesbian Californians from teaching in public schools. The proposal failed at the ballot box in large part because of Reagan's stance on the issue.

But the modern day conservative movement has been taken over by the christian fascists, and they are hell bent on forcing their narrow morals on the rest of the country.

So I was happy to see this ad yesterday. Real Republicans taking the true conservative stand on Prop 8:


The results on this ballot measure will likely be close. But it's vital that the proposition be rejected. You can do your part by donating here.

Tony Perkins: Drama Queen

Tony Perkins, head of the christian-fascist Family Research Council, yesterday to the New York Times:
It’s more important than the presidential election. We’ve picked bad presidents before, and we’ve survived as a nation. But we will not survive if we lose the institution of marriage.
Yeah...because...you know...Massachusetts has fallen into armageddon.

Give me a fuckin' break!

This sort of thinking is what should move loads of voters against the measure, and is most certainly one of the many reasons why Republicans will be sent packing next week.

401k's are losing value by the day, gas prices are still sky-high, we're on the verge of a depression-like economic downturn, and our global reputation is in tatters. And Perkins REALLY believes that the most important issue of the day is gay marriage?!?!

Releasing My Inner Archie Bunker

This vile and horrid ad from some fuckin' Chinese group compares gay marriage to incest, polygamy, and adult-on-child marriages...


Every fiber of my inner-Archie Bunker wants to lash out at these horrid right-wing nutcase fascists.

This is beyond disgusting and any TV station that plays this ad should be boycotted straight away. Not even the caucasian wing-nuts have run such a repellent, repugnant, loathsome ad!!

Fucking assholes.

Not Ready For the Presidency

I am not trying to be ageist here, but tell me, after watching the clip below, that John McCain should be let anywhere near the White House. And then take the thought one step further...to "President Palin."

Unqualified

Quote of the Day:
I don’t believe she’s qualified to be President of the United States. The first judgment a potential President makes is who their running mate is—and I don’t think John made a very good selection.
-Sen. Chuck Hagel (Republican-NE), on Sarah Palin's candidacy.

Hagel hasn't endorsed Obama publicly, but me thinks he'll be casting a vote for him next week!

"Runaway Train"

It's time for some "kick ass rock and roll"!! Your Song of the Day is the new single from AC/DC...

"Rock 'n Roll Train"

Sarah Palin: Pallin' Around With Convicts

Sen. Ted Stevens (Republican-AK) was found guilty yesterday on seven counts of corruption charges.

And the important question of the day is this: Will the Anchorage Airport have to change it's name?

27 October 2008

The Electoral Map: Worst Case Scenario

Following yesterday's post in which I laid out the best case scenario for the Obama/Biden ticket in the Electoral College, here is what I believe to be the worst case scenario - how things might look if there is some sort of unforeseen Truman-style upset by John McCain...


McCain/Palin 296
Obama/Biden 242
(270 needed to win)

We need to remember that this election isn't over. While many Americans are voting early, a vast majority won't cast ballots until November 4th, and we won't know the results until that evening. That said, while Obama seems to be on track to a solid win, there are some factors that might derail him.

John McCain is pouring all of his resources into Pennsylvania, never mind that polling there shows Obama up by 10-points or more. The Republican is playing the race card (what other reason would prompt him to put all his eggs in such an impossible basket) and hoping the Keystone State will carry him over the finish line. If it works in Pennyslvania it will work in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, and could very well extend into Colorado and Nevada.

However...if McCain were somehow able to pull such a scenario out of his ass, he'd do so without the national popular vote, hobbling his presidency from day one.

But as of today, I don't see this scenario playing itself out. Nor do I see yesterday's "best case" as the final result. It will be somewhere in the middle...but only if Americans show up at their polling places in great numbers between now and Election Day.

So please...PLEASE...get out there and VOTE!

Tomorrow: I'll post a map based on where I believe things stand one-week out.

Monday Morning Levity

Hilarious video from Teddy Wayne...


Sarah Palin Meets Woody Allen from RADAR on Vimeo.

Yet Another Republican For Obama

Former Gov. William Weld, who was the first of four Republicans to hold the governorship of Massachusetts from 1991 to 2003, endorsed Barack Obama for president last week.
Senator Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who will transform our politics and restore America's standing in the world. We need a president who will lead based on our common values and Senator Obama demonstrates an ability to unite and inspire. Throughout this campaign I've watched his steady leadership through trying times and I'm confident he is the best candidate to move our country forward.
Weld was governor from 1991 to 1997, and endorsed Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries earlier this year.

More Republicans For Obama

"They. Did. A. Lousy. Job."


A slew of Democrats abandoned President Carter in 1980 because of incompetent leadership. The economy was in the shitter, our foreign policy was a joke, and our global reputation was in tatters. Americans who had voted Democratic for 50 years punished their party for such failed statesmanship by voting Republican in large enough numbers to hand Ronald Reagan an Electoral College landslide, and with him a GOP-led Senate.

We find ourselves in the same situation in 2008, only with the party labels reversed. I have posted several instances of prominent Republicans publicly endorsing the Democratic ticket this year. But the big question is this: Will enough disenchanted Republicans have the cajones, as Democrats did in 1980, to punish their party for a job so thoroughly screwed up that they'll be able to mark their ballots for a black Democrat?

Based on the rather large number of public, high-profile Republican endorsements, I think Obama will be surprised at the level of support he gets from the opposition in eight days.

Republicans For Obama

Add former Sen. Larry Pressler (Republican-SD) to the growing list of prominent Republicans who are voting for Barack Obama next week:
I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of [former Treasury Secretary Robert] Rubin and [former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul] Volcker better.

[John McCain's] handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous.
It will Pressler's first vote for a Democrat.

The Big Gunns

Ok everyone...gather 'round.

Two new high-profile "No on 8" ads...




There's still time to beat this fascist proposition. You can do your part by sending a few bucks their way.

Suh - NAP !

Quote of the Day:
She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone, she does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party.

Remember: divas trust only unto themselves as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom.
-A McCain campaign aide commenting on the GOP V.P. candidate, to CNN yesterday.

They are now eating their own...yeah...you betcha!

Hissing Pussy

Brent and I have been on pussy patrol over the last week, watching Ben & Daryl's cats while they were in L.A., and spending some time with Mona while Scott and Steve are vacationing in Europe (whatever!). Ben and Daryl's cats hid during each visit I made to check on them. Mona, however, greeted me this morning from a rather comfy nap...

26 October 2008

The Electoral Map: Best Case Scenario

Ok...as we approach the final week of the 2008 presidential campaign all eyes will be on the polls. The important ones to watch, of course, will be the state-by-state polls, as that is where the election will be won or lost. Barack Obama has enjoyed a comfortable lead in most national polling over the last couple of weeks, which seems to be translating into a solidified Electoral College advantage at the state-by-state level.

Personally, I think things will tighten between now and November 4th. This is a conservative country at heart, and while it looks like we're on track to elect Barack Obama president, I also think that the history of presidential elections from 1968 to 2004 will be provide the Democratic ticket with some push back. In those ten elections, no Democrat won 50% of the vote except Jimmy Carter in 1976. (Bill Clinton won both of his elections with 43% and 49% respectively, due in large part to Ross Perot's presence on the ballot in 1992 and 1996.)

That said, I still believe we're on track to a realigning election. Obama looks highly likely to win this thing with a comfortable popular vote margin and a strong showing in the Electoral College.

And so I will post two maps over the next couple of days. A best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. I don't expect either map to be in place on November 5th. Instead, they'll serve as a political geek's look at the ceiling and floor of Obama's support.

Below is the best case scenario, as I see it. If this election turns into a Reagan-style rout of the ruling party, if enough disenchanted Republicans have the courage to vote against their party as punishment for incompetent leadership, the map could be sky blue on Election Day...


Obama/Biden 400
McCain/Palin 138
(270 needed to win)

If there is a huge Democratic tidal wave on Election Day, we could very well see some longtime Republican states move to Obama's column unexpectedly: Georgia and North Carolina (where African-American turnout could be key); Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota (where Obama is spending butt loads of money because TV ad buys are cheap in those states); and Florida (if Obama over performs with senior citizen and Jewish voters). I think the chances of such a landslide are about 5%. The Democrats may well win one (maybe two) of these states next week, but to win all of them...well...I just don't see it.

Tomorrow: The worst case scenario.

On Prop 8: NO!

fascism: (noun), an extreme form of nationalism that rejects individual freedom, individualism, democracy, and limitations on state.
(see "Mormon")


This is very simple, really. The California State Constitution exists in order to guarantee individual rights, liberty, and equal justice under the law. Those who want to pass Proposition 8, the proposed amendment to the state constitution that would define marriage as between one man and one woman, would like to graffiti the document with discrimination and hatred.

Californians must reject this ballot measure outright.

The argument of the fascists pushing this amendment is that gay unions somehow undermine the sanctity of traditional marriage. The facts, however, are not on their side. Gay couples have been able to wed legally in California since June and heterosexual marriages seem to be doing just fine. The preacher and his wife in New Castle haven't blown up; the marriage license line at City Hall in Modesto hasn't turned into to some gay pride event; and the divorce rate in California remains right where it was in May. The same goes for Massachusetts, where gay marriage has been legal for several years now. Everyone is fine, the Earth hasn't opened up to swallow us all whole.

No. What this essential comes down to is that the right wing fascists of the Mormon Church are hateful bigots with absolutely no idea what they're talking about. I mean, a church known for its polygamist past should be the last group to preach to others about the meaning of marriage.

When it comes right down to it, this amendment proposal has nothing to do with marriage - and everything to do with being gay. If you folks want to preach to the rafters about your view of "traditional marriage," fine...go for it. As Americans that is your right. But don't try to force your views on the rest of us by way of the ballot box. Until you criticize the trashing of straight marriage and support a constitutional amendment banning straight divorce, no one should take you seriously. Until you stand up and fight Britney Spears and Madonna just as hard as you fight the gay community, you have no moral ground on which to stand.

Facts are facts: You folks pushing this hate amendment aren't pro-marriage. You're anti-gay. And Californians should reject Proposition 8 on November 4th.

Give Me Some Bass

While putting together some tunes for a small dinner party last night, I put two songs on the playlist, back to back, that had some absolutely wicked bass riffs. I post them here as a double Song of the Day...

First up, Fleetwood Mac's classic "Go Your Own Way." John McVie is in another realm on this track. Pay special attention at the chorus - underneath the vocals of Lindsey Buckingham, Christine McVie, and Stevie Nicks - McVie is a one man orchestra, anchoring the track with some stellar bass riffs.



And on the other side of the musical spectrum is this funk classic from 1978. R&B legend Leon Sylvers delivers some solid, muffled bass in the intro, and then provides some wild licks through the rest of the track. Enjoy "Don't Stop, Get Off" by the Sylvers.

"Roll It, Pat It, and Mark It With a B..."

Greg Sargent over at TPM is all over the story of the idiot in Pennsylvania who carved the letter "B" into her cheek and then went to police and faked a story about being attacked by a black man because she had a "McCain/Palin" bumper sticker on her car.

That whole side of the political spectrum is just one big sad state of affairs.

25 October 2008

It Was 1948

Yesterday's "Which Election Was It?" electoral map was from 1948. In what is widely considered the biggest upset in presidential history, Democratic incumbent Harry Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey. And while it wasn't a landslide, it wasn't close.

Following the triumph of World War II and the resulting booming economy, the U.S. was on a slight downward trend. Truman's approval ratings were in the cellar and the 1940 Republican presidential candidate was re-nominated to take on Franklin Roosevelt's successor on an "I told you so" platform.

It didn't work, although most polls, pundits, and voters thought it would. Polling showed Dewey beating Truman to a pulp. However, as polling was still an in-exact science at the time, surveys of the voting public stopped in early October. If they hadn't, they might have picked up the last minute surge of many Americans who, after 16 years of Democratic rule, knew nothing but. And thus Harry Truman won the election in a stunning upset.

Everyone was so sure of a Dewey victory that the Chicago Tribune ran the now infamous headline, before the final result: "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN."

Since then, every presidential candidate who finds themselves behind in pre-election polling compares themselves to President Truman. Only every single one of them found themselves right where the polls put them...on the losing side of history.

For Congress: A Write-In

When the Democrats took control of congress two years ago, I was among the first to say that impeachment should be kept off the table. I was wrong and changed my tune within months of the new congress taking office. One only need look at the trashed state of our nation and the Constitution to realize that if ever there was a case for impeachment of a president (and vice-president), this is it.

Yet my congresswoman, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, refused to take up the issue. In fact she has been the queen of capitulation from the get go, giving in to the incompetent and highly unpopular administration on issue after issue, from impeachment to FISA.

Unfortunately Pelosi had no major competition in the Democratic primary earlier this year, and she has only token opposition for the general election in Cindy Sheehan's independent candidacy. The Speaker will coast to re-election next week.

But she'll do so without my vote.

No, I'm not abstaining. No, I'm not voting for Sheehan (who, by the way, might surprise us all with a stronger than expected showing on Election Day). And no, of course I'm not voting for the Republican candidate. Instead, I'm tipping my hat to a San Francisco resident who, like me, has had it with Pelosi's lack of cajones. A passionate progressive here in the 8th congressional district who had a spirited debate with me through out the Democratic primary campaign, casting his vote for Hillary Clinton while I backed Barack Obama. His strong values on many causes are near and dear to the residents of this great city, and he has put his money, sweat, and tears where his mouth is by taking part in the 545-mile San Francisco to Los Angeles AIDS Lifecycle ride.

On November 4th, I will cast a write-in vote in order to send a signal to Speaker Pelosi that she needs to grow a spine. I will be casting my vote for United States Representative for Larry Litalien.

I urge anyone reading from the 8th district to join me. Pelosi's a shoo-in, but let's send her a strong message.

The Vet How Did Not Vet

Spot on...

"Lost My Home, Lookin' For a Job"

24 October 2008

Are You Freekin' Kiddin' Me?

John McCain's brother, apparently believing that his relationship to the Republican presidential candidate gives him special access to the cops, called 9-1-1 in Arlington, Virginia recently to report...

...traffic.


Do we really want four more years of this shit?

Platter of Shit

Quote of the Day:
I look at these [undecided voters] and can’t quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors?, I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention?

To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?"
-David Sedaris, in a New Yorker essay on the very odd American called "the undecided voter."

Click on the link above and give the essay a read. As always, Sedaris will have you in stitches.

More Good Polling News

More good polling news for the Obama/Biden ticket. Two more national polls show two more blow out scenarios:
New York Times/CBS News:
Obama/Biden 52%
McCain/Palin 39%

ABC News/Washington Post:
Obama/Biden 54%
McCain/Palin 43%
More importantly, new state-by-state polling continues to show a comfortable Electoral College position:
Minnesota:
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 40%

Pennsylvania:
Obama/Biden 53%
McCain/Palin 41%

Florida
:
Obama/Biden 49%
McCain/Palin 42%

Montana:
Obama/Biden 44%
McCain/Palin 40%
While the data shows a solid position for Sens. Obama and Biden heading into Election Day, this is by no means a done deal. As Thomas Dewey in 1948 and Barack Obama in New Hampshire this past winter can attest, the only poll that matters is the one that includes real ballots being cast by real voters on Election Day.

Be confident. Know Hope. But fight like he's 10 points down. Don't let up. Be relentless.

Obama and Arnold and Prop 8

Andrew Sullivan challenges Obama:
Black Californians back the anti-gay measure by a margin of 20 points, 58 - 38, in the SUSA poll...[making] it vital, in my opinion, that Barack Obama strongly and unequivocally oppose Proposition 8 in California, rather than keeping mainly quiet as he has done so far. We need him to make an ad opposing it.

Memo to Obama: make an ad. Speak loudly. Defend equality. Defend it when it might actually lose you some votes.
I agree. Obama's nomination is a catch-22 on the issue of Prop 8. The African-American community, who will be voting in droves on November 4th, oppose gay marriage by a ridiculously wide margin, and I am under no illusions those numbers will change significantly in this election. But if Obama were to cut an ad, it might move just enough voters to make a difference.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME
...I would ask Gov. Schwarzenegger (who is not thrilled that this issue is on the ballot) to cut his own commercial slamming this horrid amendment. Running an Ahh-nuld ad during the NASCAR races and football games over the next two weekends could sway just enough straight white guys to make the same difference an Obama ad might make with the African-American community.

You can do your part by giving to the cause here.

This Is Why Obama Is Ahead

He's presidential, he's patriotic, and he's classy. He really is the Democrats' Reagan...

Republicans For Obama

I saw this coming from a mile away:
Scott McClellan, President Bush's former press secretary, announced Thursday that he is endorsing Barack Obama for president.

"From the very beginning I have said I am going to support the candidate that has the best chance for changing the way Washington works and getting things done and I will be voting for Barack Obama and clapping," McClellan said in his endorsement.
And former Gov. Arne Carlson (Republican-MN) endorsed Obama yesterday as well:
Regardless of our party, regardless of our partisan inclinations, there is no interest more compelling than the interest in the well-being of the United States.

End-of-the-Week Levity

You can't help but love this classic scene from "Big Business," starring Bette Midler and Lily Tomlin. It's slapstick at its best...

Which Election Was It?


After 16 years of Democratic rule, the Republicans were considered shoo-ins to return to the White House in this election. In fact, polling predicted a GOP landslide. But it wasn't to be. In the last month of the campaign, the Democrat stepped up to the plate and won an unexpected victory.

Democratic ticket:
Popular vote 49.5%
Electoral vote 303

Republican ticket:

Popular vote 45.1%
Electoral vote 189

A segregationist third-party candidate won 2.4% of the popular vote and 39 electoral votes from four southern states.

The answer tomorrow.

Eye Candy

His name is Joe...but I don't think his is the six pack McCain and the MILF have been speaking of on the campaign trail...

23 October 2008

Republicans For Obama

I was too young to vote in the 1980 presidential election, but I remember that night vividly. I was upset that Carter lost but remember feeling that he deserved to lose, that the country needed a reset moment, and that the Democratic Party needed some time in the political wilderness.

As much as I respected President Carter, I more than likely would have cast my ballot against him had I been old enough to vote. Whether my ballot would have been cast for Gov. Ronald Reagan, the Republican, or for John Anderson, the independent candidate, I don't know. But I look at Reagan's GOP convention speech from that year and see some strong parallels to this year's contest: Incompetence, failure, and America's global reputation in tatters. The situation was more than enough to send many Democrats to their polling places to cast a vote for Reagan.

In 2008, it looks like we have a reverse situation. With Republican leadership in the White House bringing us incompetence, failure, and a global reputation in tatters, a large number of Republicans seem ready to put their differences aside and cast their ballots for the Democratic ticket...

Obama Way Ahead In Key States

I have no clue as to the accuracy of their polls are or how well respected their results are in the political community, but a new set of numbers from Big Ten Battleground show Barack Obama carrying the midwestern states by tremendous margins:
Indiana:
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Iowa:
Obama 52%
McCain 39%

Michigan:
Obama 58%
McCain 36%

Minnesota:
Obama 57%
McCain 38%

Ohio:
Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Pennsylvania:
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

Wisconsin:
Obama 53%
McCain 40%
I don't know...ahead in Indiana by ten points? The Hoosier State hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, and while it's definitely in play this year, a ten-point margin for Obama seems like an awfully big outlier. I'll want to see more polling out of this state before I move it from the toss-up category.

The gap in Michigan seems awfully big as well. I just can't believe Obama will win there by 19-points. Although...three other polls show Obama ahead there by 15-points or more, and McCain has given up on the state. So, who knows. (I still think Obama will win by less than ten in Michigan.)

The rest of the polling above jives with other polls in those states. Again, I'm no expert on these things and no one really knows what to expect on Election Day. But if I were the McCain campaign, I'd be shitting bricks right now.

Little Miss Chloe

...on her way to a bath at Bernie's Grooming, and NOT happy about it!

In Disarray

NBC's Chuck Todd sees the Republican ticket, and the folks running their campaign, turning on each other and in the typical death-throws of a losing campaign...

"All bound for Mu Mu Land"

I ran across this on another blog yesterday and my jaw hit the floor. I TOTALLY forgot about this song.

Your Song of the Day is a #11 hit from 1991..."Justified and Ancient" by KLF featuring Tammy Wynette:

22 October 2008

Tommy Joe Porter Hates Me

Email from a reader, responding to this post from yesterday, as written, without any editing from yours truly:
you cocksmokin nigger luvin' faggut!!!!!!!!! tracy kerly may look like a pug but at least she doesn't stick her dick where the good lord didnt think it should go. mccain is gonna win this thing mark my words he will pull this out of his ass and all you barak hussain ubama ass fuckers will wake up on novamber the forth and start cryin like the pansees you are

faggot.

with deepest despite:
tommy joe porter
Tommy Joe...we need to have a very long talk about your spelling, grammar, and writing sty-...wait a second...

Tracy Kerlee has a dick?

Stripped For Cash

So, I stopped at the Bank of America ATM on the corner of 18th and Castro this morning to grab some cash, and as I was getting back in my car something caught my eye at the Wells Fargo ATM up the street...


When I told Brent about it later in the morning he said he'd already heard about it on the Energy 92.7 morning show. Apparently this guy was running all of his errands in the Castro this morning with nothing on but his shoes and a smile.

Only in San Francisco!

"It's time now to sing out, the story never ends..."

A superb internet ad against California's Prop 8. Forward this to everyone you know. It makes the point better than most of the ads I've seen on TV. And PLEASE...click here to send a few bucks their way.

Two New Polls Show Strong Obama Lead

Two new polls show a wide lead for Barack Obama with just two weeks until Election Day:
Pew Research:
Obama 53%
McCain 39%

NBC News/Wall Street Journal:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%
This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination. A lot can happen in two weeks and other polls show the race with an Obama lead of about 6 to 8 points. It's bound to tighten by Election Day, and John McCain has decided to put all of his eggs in Pennsylvania's basket, hoping for an Electoral College upset.

So the key for the Obama campaign is to work harder and harder each day, as if they're 10 points down. And while they're focusing on some red states because they have to in order to reach 270 electoral votes, they should make sure Obama and/or Biden get back to Pennsylvania a couple of times between now and the election.

The path to victory is easy, if they don't get too confident and don't make any mis-steps.

UPDATE: Make that FOUR new polls:
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%

Gallup:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%
And now...the electoral map...

The Electoral College Outlook, Oct 22

Based on the composite state-by-state numbers as calculated by Pollster.com, here is how I see the Electoral College map as of this morning...


Obama/Biden: 320 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 218 electoral votes
(270 needed to win)

I've taken the states I listed as toss-ups last week and assigned them to a candidate based on how I think they will fall. Ohio and West Virginia go to McCain, as I think the Appalachian areas of those states will provide more than enough cover for the Republican ticket against Democratic tides elsewhere in those states. The same with Florida. In the end it's a Republican state and the northern "hick" areas there will provide McCain its 27 electoral votes. If a "Bradley Effect" still exists anywhere in the nation it's in Appalachia and Northern Florida.

North Carolina and North Dakota continue to look good for Obama so I've painted them blue here, although I think they can go either way. Virginia looks very good for the Democrats (more so that NC and ND) and I am about 85% confident that it will be in the party's column for the first time since 1964.

I'm no expert on these matters. This map is totally based on my unscientific reading of the polls, mixed with a half-hazard hunch on how each state will behave. But however close my map is to the eventual result, one thing is for sure: Things look extremely advantageous for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Even without the toss-up states, they still have enough electoral votes to claim victory.

For balance, here is how I see the map with toss-up states:


Obama/Biden: 286 electoral votes
McCain/Palin: 186 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 66 electoral votes

On this map, states are listed as toss-ups if the polling figures on Pollster.com show both candidates are below 50% and have less than 4-points separating them.

I will revisit the map this weekend.

Mid-Week Brain Break

120 years of British history in two minutes, courtesy of the Hovis Bread Company...

Numbskull

John McCain, kissing ass in Pennsylvania yesterday:
Western Pennsylvania is the most patriotic, most God-loving, most patriotic part of America.
Uhhh...Sen. McCain...your constituents in Arizona would like to have a word with you.

"You better take it easy, this place is hot..."

Your Song of the Day is a top-notch remake of the Spencer Davis Group's "Gimme Some Lovin'" by the Blues Brothers...

Out of Touch

Shades of Evita?

While hundreds of thousands of Americans lose their homes and jobs, the Republican Party has been playing dress-up with the Palin family:
The Republican National Committee appears to have spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September. The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August.
And these fuckheads gave John Edwards shit about a $400 haircut!?!

21 October 2008

Clueless

Dim-bulb Sarah Palin, incorrectly answering a question from a third grader about the role of vice-president...


Harry Reid, the current majority leader in the Senate, responded:
Governor Palin needs to re-read - or perhaps read for the first time - the Constitution. While the Vice President presides over the Senate, he or she is not "in charge of" it.
While Article I of the Constitution states the vice-president shall preside over the Senate, it also explicitly states that they have no legislative power in the chamber unless there is a tie vote.

Some are saying Palin just doesn't know how the U.S. government works under the Constitution. That in and of itself is bad enough. But I actually think that in addition to that, the McCain handlers are feeding her that line in hopes that, should they win this election, they can send her over to Capitol Hill in an attempt to take over a chamber that will be overwhelmingly Democratic.

She'll make Cheney's assault on the Constitution look like child's play.

Save the nation, protect the Constitution: Vote OBAMA/BIDEN.

Crazy Tracy Kerlee

What a poor, tragic, pug of a woman...

"Toot" and Barack

When I read Barack Obama's "Dreams From My Father," I couldn't help but admire the relationship he has with his maternal grandmother, Madelyn Dunham. On that matter, the Senator from Illinois and I journeyed the same path. From birth until 12 years old (save a year-and-a-half in L.A.), it was my mother and grandmother who raised me; and even beyond the age of 12, many weekends and summers were spent in my grandmother's company. In the absence of my father, "Grandma Mom" was the co-parent with my mother. Both women gave up so much in order to put food on the table and to keep my sisters and me in clothes and under a dry roof.

Today my thoughts are with Sen. Obama, as he gets ready to leave the campaign trail for a couple of days so that he can travel to Hawaii to visit his ailing "Toot." With the election two weeks off and the possibility of him taking the helm very strong, this may be the last chance he gets to see her.

God speed, "Toot." And hang in there, Senator.

True Republicans

This could have been one of the many "Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile" clips I've been posting if it weren't for the patriotic true Republicans that intervene. In my opinion, John McCain doesn't deserve their vote.

Biden on Prop 8


Please, if you can, throw a few bucks No on Prop 8's way!

Unpatriotic and Beyond Vile, Part 9

A baby black bear was found dead this morning, shot in the head and dumped on the Western Carolina University campus, draped with a pair of Obama campaign signs, university police said.

Only the radical fringe Republicans would do something so horribly fucked up and twisted. This is beyond fucked-up. In fact, it crosses a line that should shake every American to their core. Because at this rate, if this sort of thing keeps up through Election Day (and probably beyond Election Day, should Obama win), we're hurdling toward someone getting killed.

Radical racism still exists in many parts of the South and Appalachia. And unless John McCain and Sarah Palin step up and make a speech condemning this behavior - and actually say out loud that they wouldn't want the votes of these dangerous imbeciles - then how long before we see a lynching? How long before someone is murdered as they walk into their polling place for early voting?

Wake up John and Sarah! Until you issue a full-throated condemnation of this vile behavior, you, in essence, promote it.

Little Miss Chloe

...enjoying a warm and sunny autumn afternoon last week...and one of the best views of San Francisco...